3 Dec 2024
Publish Date
Saturday 26 December 2020 - 11:08
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The US policy towards Central Asia during Biden’s presidency
The replacement of US President Donald Trump by a Democratic candidate like Joe Biden would be a major change that will affect the US policies in various regions of the world, including Central Asia. Biden has repeatedly traveled to Central Asia during Barack Obama's presidency and is favoring close ties with some of the regional leaders. However, he is the candidate of the Democratic Party and we should expect strict policies regarding human rights, democracy, and political-economic reforms in Central Asia. On the other hand, the Biden administration's views towards the Afghan peace process can also influence Washington’s policy towards Central Asia.
The replacement of US President Donald Trump by a Democratic candidate like Joe Biden would be a major change that will affect the US policies in various regions of the world, including Central Asia. Biden has repeatedly traveled to Central Asia during Barack Obama's presidency and is favoring close ties with some of the regional leaders. However, he is the candidate of the Democratic Party and we should expect strict policies regarding human rights, democracy, and political-economic reforms in Central Asia. On the other hand, the Biden administration's views towards the Afghan peace process can also influence Washington’s policy towards Central Asia. Therefore, with the aim of analyzing the possible changes of the US policy towards Central Asia during Joe Biden’s presidency, we have conducted an interview with Dr. David Kankarini, a reporter and Central Asia expert. Mr.Kankarini holds a PhD in International Studies (Institutions and Policies) from the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart or Catholic University of Milan. His works has been previously published by the Institute for International Studies of Rome (IAI) and the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI).
Q: How do you evaluate Trump's foreign policy in Central Asia? Did the Donald Trump administration have a distinct plan for Central Asia?
Kankarini: The Trump administration has not made significant progress in Central Asia, in line with its global disengagement strategy. The area is increasingly becoming a test case for the relationship between Russia and China, given the lack of central Asian commitment from other international players, including the USA.
Q: Do you think Joe Biden will follow in Trump's footsteps in connecting Central and South Asia, by Pursuing the peace process in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of US troops?
Kankarini: It is not yet clear what to expect from the new US President in terms of foreign policy. Disengagement from Afghanistan could benefit regional actors, given that a power vacuum is usually filled very quickly at the geopolitical level. It will be interesting above all to see how Biden will manage the Iranian dossier forward, from which a new boost to Central Asian connectivity could come.
Q: A key characteristic of the democrat wing is the emphasis on human rights and the values of democracy. What do you think of Biden's approach about this issue in Central Asia (more pressure or tolerance)? We know there are developing countries such as Uzbekistan or deteriorating ones like Tajikistan.
Kankarini: It is undoubtedly true that democratic administrations tend to pay more attention to human rights and democratic values. On the other hand, we know that these are issues that do not have much hold on the regimes of Central Asia, both the more authoritarian ones and those in the process of opening up. These are issues on which it is certainly important to maintain attention, but which risk reducing the margins of influence on the area.
Q: Kyrgyzstan is now in a state of relative instability. The whole State (executive administration and the Parliament) is in a state of uncertainty. The US had previously supported the protests but seems there is no optimism toward Japarov. Do you think Biden’s presidency would change US position and will affect the situation in Kyrgyzstan?
Kankarini: I believe that the United States is looking closely at what is happening in Kyrgyzstan but that it is unlikely that they will take the field themselves. Russia's influence on the country is too strong to think that Washington can take concrete steps.
Q: Trump pursued a harsh policy toward China that led to a trade war. It has naturally kind of effects on Central Asia. How do you assess the Biden administration's attitude towards China in Central Asia?
Kankarini: China now has an extremely strong economic influence in Central Asia. The US administration could try to counterbalance it, but this would require a major political and economic effort. All in all, I believe that China's growing attention to the security sphere in Central Asia also benefits the United States, as Washington shares with Beijing the fear of a possible new spread of Islamic extremism.
Q: And the final question, what other changes should we expect in Central Asia as Biden rules the White House?
Kankarini: I don't expect much concrete change. There will certainly be a change in the rhetoric used at international and regional level, but Biden is unlikely to have the strength to make significant strategic repositions.
Q: How do you evaluate Trump's foreign policy in Central Asia? Did the Donald Trump administration have a distinct plan for Central Asia?
Kankarini: The Trump administration has not made significant progress in Central Asia, in line with its global disengagement strategy. The area is increasingly becoming a test case for the relationship between Russia and China, given the lack of central Asian commitment from other international players, including the USA.
Q: Do you think Joe Biden will follow in Trump's footsteps in connecting Central and South Asia, by Pursuing the peace process in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of US troops?
Kankarini: It is not yet clear what to expect from the new US President in terms of foreign policy. Disengagement from Afghanistan could benefit regional actors, given that a power vacuum is usually filled very quickly at the geopolitical level. It will be interesting above all to see how Biden will manage the Iranian dossier forward, from which a new boost to Central Asian connectivity could come.
Q: A key characteristic of the democrat wing is the emphasis on human rights and the values of democracy. What do you think of Biden's approach about this issue in Central Asia (more pressure or tolerance)? We know there are developing countries such as Uzbekistan or deteriorating ones like Tajikistan.
Kankarini: It is undoubtedly true that democratic administrations tend to pay more attention to human rights and democratic values. On the other hand, we know that these are issues that do not have much hold on the regimes of Central Asia, both the more authoritarian ones and those in the process of opening up. These are issues on which it is certainly important to maintain attention, but which risk reducing the margins of influence on the area.
Q: Kyrgyzstan is now in a state of relative instability. The whole State (executive administration and the Parliament) is in a state of uncertainty. The US had previously supported the protests but seems there is no optimism toward Japarov. Do you think Biden’s presidency would change US position and will affect the situation in Kyrgyzstan?
Kankarini: I believe that the United States is looking closely at what is happening in Kyrgyzstan but that it is unlikely that they will take the field themselves. Russia's influence on the country is too strong to think that Washington can take concrete steps.
Q: Trump pursued a harsh policy toward China that led to a trade war. It has naturally kind of effects on Central Asia. How do you assess the Biden administration's attitude towards China in Central Asia?
Kankarini: China now has an extremely strong economic influence in Central Asia. The US administration could try to counterbalance it, but this would require a major political and economic effort. All in all, I believe that China's growing attention to the security sphere in Central Asia also benefits the United States, as Washington shares with Beijing the fear of a possible new spread of Islamic extremism.
Q: And the final question, what other changes should we expect in Central Asia as Biden rules the White House?
Kankarini: I don't expect much concrete change. There will certainly be a change in the rhetoric used at international and regional level, but Biden is unlikely to have the strength to make significant strategic repositions.
News code:2501
