21 Nov 2024
Publish Date
Monday 21 October 2024 - 14:25
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Central Asia's Approach to the Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan
With the emergence of new geopolitical axes and the involvement of world powers in them, as well as the withdrawal of the U.S. from Afghanistan, Afghanistan has become once again a marginal country in geopolitical relations. Contrary to expectations, the Taliban have now laid the foundations of a peaceful coexistence with their neighbors, and have adopted a policy of positive engagement in the economic field. In this new situation, the four countries of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan established close relations with the Taliban to take advantage of this opportunity. Tajikistan has also realized this important issue recently and is making preparations to establish relations with the Taliban, in order to share in the political and economic benefits of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
By: Mir Ahmad Mashaal
Introduction
Since the beginning of more than thirty years of relations between Central Asian countries and Afghanistan, these relations have been full of ups and downs. Shortly after the independence of the Central Asian countries, as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the relations of these countries with Afghanistan stagnated, due to the occurrence of civil war in Afghanistan. At the same time, the two countries of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan indirectly entered the internal conflicts of Afghanistan, by supporting one of the parties involved in the Afghan war.
With the emergence of the Taliban and the capture of the northern regions of Afghanistan by the group, the countries of Central Asia faced a new phenomenon. This new phenomenon was a Taliban, which was in alliance with Central Asian Islamist militant groups. The new situation brought the Central Asian countries into a new phase of interaction with Afghanistan. Among the five countries in the region, Turkmenistan remained neutral as before; Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan adopted a wait-and-see policy; Uzbekistan adopted a policy of simultaneous opposition and tolerance regarding the Taliban; And Tajikistan, which was on the side of the anti-Taliban front of the Northern Alliance, started hostilities with the Taliban.
After the U.S. attack on Afghanistan and the formation of a new political system in the country, the countries of Central Asia entered into a political and economic relation with the new Afghan government, along with supporting the American war against the Taliban and providing bases and other assistance to the United States. America's presence in Afghanistan was a geopolitical gift for Central Asian countries that could bring them many benefits. But during the 20-year presence of the United States in Afghanistan, and despite the incentives that the U.S. offered to both sides, the relations between Afghanistan and the countries of Central Asia were not as expected, especially in the economic field.
After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the overthrow of the republican government in the country, the Taliban once again took control of Afghanistan. Although dangerous hypotheses were presented about the re-appearance of the Taliban in Afghanistan, especially for the Central Asian region, but contrary to these hypotheses, the relations of the Taliban government with the countries of Central Asia, with the exception of Tajikistan, started smoothly and are expanding and developing warmly. In the meantime, the question that can be raised here is why the political and economic relations of the Central Asian countries with the Taliban are expanding? This question can be answered by examining some basic issues.
Afghanistan's geopolitical isolation
Since two centuries ago, Afghanistan has always been known as one of the axes of global geopolitics. In the 19th century, the country was a place where the two colonial powers of Britain and Tsarist Russia clashed in the form of the Great Game. In the second half of the 20th century, this country became a place of competition between the two great powers, the Soviet Union and the United States of America. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the geopolitical importance of Afghanistan was greatly diminished, but at the beginning of the 21st century, this country once again became the most important geopolitical place in the world. This time, the geopolitical importance of this country was due to the nesting of al-Qaeda - which, of course, was an external factor, and not a part of Afghanistan's own geopolitical elements.
In the middle of the so-called U.S. War on Terror, the Taliban which was one of the goals of this struggle, defined their war as "a war within Afghanistan", and renounced the alliance with the terrorist groups wanted by the U.S. Such a turn in the goals and nature of the Taliban, along with the emergence of new geopolitical issues - such as U.S.'s competition with China in the Asia-Pacific region, and Russia's confrontation with the West in the Eastern Europe region - made Afghanistan geopolitically unimportant, as it was far from the above geographical fronts.
Now it is not even possible to consider a share for the country in the equations of the Middle East, as one of the key areas of regional geopolitics. From a forward-looking perspective, Afghanistan cannot also be considered a central region for global geopolitics; Because the U.S., as a naval power, has no interest in returning to Afghanistan, and Russia no longer dreams of reaching the southern waters. Even at the regional level, Afghanistan is out of the competition between India and Pakistan. Of course, the continuation of the current situation (Afghanistan's geopolitical isolation) will depend on the foreign policies of the Taliban’s Emirate.
The Taliban's different approach compared to the past
When the Taliban emerged in the mid-1990s and occupied the northern regions of Afghanistan, adjacent to Central Asia, the countries of this region were afraid. This is because the Taliban posed a great danger to the countries of this region, by supporting the Islamist militant groups of Central Asia and colluding with Al-Qaeda.
In the meantime, the countries of Central Asia each took unilateral and, in some cases, multilateral measures against the Taliban. By adopting a foreign policy of neutrality, Turkmenistan withdrew itself from the affairs of Afghanistan, as in the past. Even by establishing weak relations with the Taliban, Turkmenistan increased its security factor in Afghanistan. While opposing the Taliban, Uzbekistan adopted a policy of tolerance towards this group. In addition, by closing the Friendship Bridge and severely blocking its border with Afghanistan, Uzbekistan has prevented militant groups from entering its territory. Tajikistan fully supported the anti-Taliban forces, and practically became hostile to the group. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan followed the policy of wait and see, due to their geographical distance from Afghanistan.
After 9/11 and the U.S. attack on Afghanistan, the Central Asian countries sided with the United States against the Taliban, and provided bases and airspace to the U.S. In the middle of the U.S. war, the Taliban changed its approach and cut off its support for Central Asian militant groups. After this change, the Central Asian countries also reduced their opposition against the Taliban, and gradually took the side of neutrality regarding the Afghanistan issue.
After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power, the group (which during its war with the United States had provided the basis for peaceful coexistence with Central Asia) opened the door for positive interaction with the countries of Central Asia. The Central Asian countries, except Tajikistan, seized also the opportunity and entered into political and economic interactions with the Taliban. In addition, the adoption of an economic-oriented foreign policy by the Taliban encouraged Central Asian countries to expand their economic cooperation with Afghanistan. In fact, the new policies of the Taliban, which are based on the expansion of economic cooperation and peaceful coexistence in the political arena, have created a lot of optimism in these countries and encouraged them more than ever to benefit from the political and economic interaction with the Taliban.
Alignment of Russia and China about the expansion of the Central Asia-Afghanistan relationship
Another factor that keeps the hands of the Central Asian countries open for political and economic engagement with the Taliban is the favorable view of the two powers, Russia and China, on this issue. In the past, when the United States was present in Afghanistan, the Central Asian countries took cautious steps to get closer to Afghanistan under the presence of the U.S. In the post-US environment, Russia and China became pioneers in establishing relations with the Taliban government. But these two countries are a little restrained in this regard, because they do not want to arouse the sensitivity of the Americans by getting closer to the Taliban. However, they have left the field open for Central Asian countries, and even encourage them to expand their level of engagement with the Taliban. According to Beijing and Moscow, Afghanistan's closer relationship with Central Asian countries has helped to strengthen the eastern axis in the region, and becomes a barrier to western influence in it.
The economic opportunities that Afghanistan provides for Central Asia are tempting for the countries of the region. Based on this, the most important issue is the economic view of Central Asian countries towards Afghanistan, which makes this country more attractive to Central Asia than any other issue. Economically, Afghanistan has profitable economic advantages for Central Asian countries, and accordingly, these countries see a prosperous future in expanding their engagement with Afghanistan.
As a consumer country, Afghanistan is a good destination for exporting goods from Central Asia. In this context, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which have a high level of agricultural and industrial production, consider Afghanistan as a consumer market which has a high level of demand and is in a close distance. In the past three years, the main focus of these two countries has been on the development of exports to Afghanistan. In this context, high-ranking officials of these countries have regularly visited Afghanistan, and signed many agreements with the Taliban to increase their trade with them. The last one was the visit of the Prime Minister of Uzbekistan to Kabul, where he signed several economic agreements with the Taliban, and opened a large exhibition of Uzbek products in Kabul.
For Turkmenistan, Afghanistan is a good destination for exporting oil and gas, as well as a route for transferring the Turkmen gas to the severely- needed markets of Pakistan and India. The project of transferring Turkmenistan's gas to the south, which was also one of the plans in the first Taliban rule, has now become a good opportunity to be realized in the form of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline project. In this context, the officials of Turkmenistan and the Taliban have met frequently, and consulted about the resumption of this project. Finally, in 11 September 2024, Afghanistan’s Prime Minister Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, along with Chairman of the People's Council of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, officially began the practical work of TAPI in Afghanistan.
Moreover, Afghanistan is the best option for energy exports from Central Asia to Afghanistan itself and to South Asia. In this regard, there are several unfinished projects, including the Casa 1000) The Central Asia-South Asia (power project, which Central Asian countries have high hopes for their implementation in the existing space.
In the transit sector, Afghanistan's role in connecting Central Asia to the South is also very important for Central Asian countries. It is one of the big dreams of all Central Asian countries, and they consider the existing space as the best opportunity to realize it. This issue has been one of the most important priorities of Central Asian countries, and one of their main agendas in dealing with the Taliban in the past three years. In this regard, there are many projects, but the most important of them which attracts the attention of most Central Asian countries is the so-called Trans-Afghan railway project, which connects Uzbekistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan. This project, which Kazakhstan has recently expressed its interest in joining it, is a big project that will make possible the inter-regional connection of Central and South Asia.
Among the Central Asian countries, only Tajikistan did not engage with the Taliban, because of its opposition to the group. But it is also slowly coming to the conclusion that without interacting with the Taliban, it cannot benefit from the many economic benefits that Afghanistan provides for that country. That is why Tajikistan has sent Syed Momin Yatimov, head of the National Security Committee of Tajikistan, to Kabul several times to open the way to negotiate and establish relations with the Taliban.
conclusion
Since more than thirty years ago, when the countries of Central Asia gained independence, Afghanistan not only could not be a good neighbor for them and help the economic development of these countries, but it was also a great source of instability and threat to them. Even during the U.S.'s presence in Afghanistan, when it was thought that the Central Asian countries would be able to strengthen their economic foundations by using American facilities, the opposite was true; Because Russia and China were less satisfied with the close interaction of the Central Asian countries with the US-backed government in Afghanistan. In addition, the war in Afghanistan itself was a big obstacle for Central Asian countries to benefit economically from Afghanistan.
With the emergence of new geopolitical axes, and the involvement of world powers in them, as well as the withdrawal of U.S. from Afghanistan, the country once again became a marginal country in geopolitical relations.
After regaining power in Afghanistan, however, the Taliban unexpectedly established a peaceful coexistence with its neighbors in foreign policy, and pursued a policy of positive economic interaction with them. In addition, the current environment in Afghanistan made Russian and Chinese powers optimistic about close interaction with Kabul.
Such a positive atmosphere provided the necessary opportunities for Central Asian countries to realize their economic goals in Afghanistan. Therefore, in the last three years, the four countries of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have established close relations with the Taliban, in order to take advantage of this opportunity. Recently, Tajikistan also realized the importance of engagement with the Taliban and is making preparations to establish relations with Kabul, in order to share in the political and economic benefits that Taliban-ruled Afghanistan can provide for it.
Although several factors have created the current atmosphere of optimism, the future situation depends on the future performance of the Taliban. From the very beginning, the Taliban has adopted a correct and measured foreign policy, and if this behavior continues, it will become possible to realize big economic dreams that bring multilateral benefits.
The only thing that probably makes the future of Afghanistan problematic is the internal policies of the Taliban. Of course, Afghanistan has an irreplaceable economic attraction for Central Asian countries, and they are unprecedentedly trying to use this opportunity. However, as long as the Taliban does not establish an inclusive government and respect the rights of Afghan citizens, especially women, we cannot hope for the permanent stability of Afghanistan and, as a result, the realization of the great common economic dreams in the country may not be possible.
Ahmad Meshaal, is an Afghan expert.
Introduction
Since the beginning of more than thirty years of relations between Central Asian countries and Afghanistan, these relations have been full of ups and downs. Shortly after the independence of the Central Asian countries, as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the relations of these countries with Afghanistan stagnated, due to the occurrence of civil war in Afghanistan. At the same time, the two countries of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan indirectly entered the internal conflicts of Afghanistan, by supporting one of the parties involved in the Afghan war.
With the emergence of the Taliban and the capture of the northern regions of Afghanistan by the group, the countries of Central Asia faced a new phenomenon. This new phenomenon was a Taliban, which was in alliance with Central Asian Islamist militant groups. The new situation brought the Central Asian countries into a new phase of interaction with Afghanistan. Among the five countries in the region, Turkmenistan remained neutral as before; Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan adopted a wait-and-see policy; Uzbekistan adopted a policy of simultaneous opposition and tolerance regarding the Taliban; And Tajikistan, which was on the side of the anti-Taliban front of the Northern Alliance, started hostilities with the Taliban.
After the U.S. attack on Afghanistan and the formation of a new political system in the country, the countries of Central Asia entered into a political and economic relation with the new Afghan government, along with supporting the American war against the Taliban and providing bases and other assistance to the United States. America's presence in Afghanistan was a geopolitical gift for Central Asian countries that could bring them many benefits. But during the 20-year presence of the United States in Afghanistan, and despite the incentives that the U.S. offered to both sides, the relations between Afghanistan and the countries of Central Asia were not as expected, especially in the economic field.
After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the overthrow of the republican government in the country, the Taliban once again took control of Afghanistan. Although dangerous hypotheses were presented about the re-appearance of the Taliban in Afghanistan, especially for the Central Asian region, but contrary to these hypotheses, the relations of the Taliban government with the countries of Central Asia, with the exception of Tajikistan, started smoothly and are expanding and developing warmly. In the meantime, the question that can be raised here is why the political and economic relations of the Central Asian countries with the Taliban are expanding? This question can be answered by examining some basic issues.
Afghanistan's geopolitical isolation
Since two centuries ago, Afghanistan has always been known as one of the axes of global geopolitics. In the 19th century, the country was a place where the two colonial powers of Britain and Tsarist Russia clashed in the form of the Great Game. In the second half of the 20th century, this country became a place of competition between the two great powers, the Soviet Union and the United States of America. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the geopolitical importance of Afghanistan was greatly diminished, but at the beginning of the 21st century, this country once again became the most important geopolitical place in the world. This time, the geopolitical importance of this country was due to the nesting of al-Qaeda - which, of course, was an external factor, and not a part of Afghanistan's own geopolitical elements.
In the middle of the so-called U.S. War on Terror, the Taliban which was one of the goals of this struggle, defined their war as "a war within Afghanistan", and renounced the alliance with the terrorist groups wanted by the U.S. Such a turn in the goals and nature of the Taliban, along with the emergence of new geopolitical issues - such as U.S.'s competition with China in the Asia-Pacific region, and Russia's confrontation with the West in the Eastern Europe region - made Afghanistan geopolitically unimportant, as it was far from the above geographical fronts.
Now it is not even possible to consider a share for the country in the equations of the Middle East, as one of the key areas of regional geopolitics. From a forward-looking perspective, Afghanistan cannot also be considered a central region for global geopolitics; Because the U.S., as a naval power, has no interest in returning to Afghanistan, and Russia no longer dreams of reaching the southern waters. Even at the regional level, Afghanistan is out of the competition between India and Pakistan. Of course, the continuation of the current situation (Afghanistan's geopolitical isolation) will depend on the foreign policies of the Taliban’s Emirate.
The Taliban's different approach compared to the past
When the Taliban emerged in the mid-1990s and occupied the northern regions of Afghanistan, adjacent to Central Asia, the countries of this region were afraid. This is because the Taliban posed a great danger to the countries of this region, by supporting the Islamist militant groups of Central Asia and colluding with Al-Qaeda.
In the meantime, the countries of Central Asia each took unilateral and, in some cases, multilateral measures against the Taliban. By adopting a foreign policy of neutrality, Turkmenistan withdrew itself from the affairs of Afghanistan, as in the past. Even by establishing weak relations with the Taliban, Turkmenistan increased its security factor in Afghanistan. While opposing the Taliban, Uzbekistan adopted a policy of tolerance towards this group. In addition, by closing the Friendship Bridge and severely blocking its border with Afghanistan, Uzbekistan has prevented militant groups from entering its territory. Tajikistan fully supported the anti-Taliban forces, and practically became hostile to the group. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan followed the policy of wait and see, due to their geographical distance from Afghanistan.
After 9/11 and the U.S. attack on Afghanistan, the Central Asian countries sided with the United States against the Taliban, and provided bases and airspace to the U.S. In the middle of the U.S. war, the Taliban changed its approach and cut off its support for Central Asian militant groups. After this change, the Central Asian countries also reduced their opposition against the Taliban, and gradually took the side of neutrality regarding the Afghanistan issue.
After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power, the group (which during its war with the United States had provided the basis for peaceful coexistence with Central Asia) opened the door for positive interaction with the countries of Central Asia. The Central Asian countries, except Tajikistan, seized also the opportunity and entered into political and economic interactions with the Taliban. In addition, the adoption of an economic-oriented foreign policy by the Taliban encouraged Central Asian countries to expand their economic cooperation with Afghanistan. In fact, the new policies of the Taliban, which are based on the expansion of economic cooperation and peaceful coexistence in the political arena, have created a lot of optimism in these countries and encouraged them more than ever to benefit from the political and economic interaction with the Taliban.
Alignment of Russia and China about the expansion of the Central Asia-Afghanistan relationship
Another factor that keeps the hands of the Central Asian countries open for political and economic engagement with the Taliban is the favorable view of the two powers, Russia and China, on this issue. In the past, when the United States was present in Afghanistan, the Central Asian countries took cautious steps to get closer to Afghanistan under the presence of the U.S. In the post-US environment, Russia and China became pioneers in establishing relations with the Taliban government. But these two countries are a little restrained in this regard, because they do not want to arouse the sensitivity of the Americans by getting closer to the Taliban. However, they have left the field open for Central Asian countries, and even encourage them to expand their level of engagement with the Taliban. According to Beijing and Moscow, Afghanistan's closer relationship with Central Asian countries has helped to strengthen the eastern axis in the region, and becomes a barrier to western influence in it.
The economic opportunities that Afghanistan provides for Central Asia are tempting for the countries of the region. Based on this, the most important issue is the economic view of Central Asian countries towards Afghanistan, which makes this country more attractive to Central Asia than any other issue. Economically, Afghanistan has profitable economic advantages for Central Asian countries, and accordingly, these countries see a prosperous future in expanding their engagement with Afghanistan.
As a consumer country, Afghanistan is a good destination for exporting goods from Central Asia. In this context, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which have a high level of agricultural and industrial production, consider Afghanistan as a consumer market which has a high level of demand and is in a close distance. In the past three years, the main focus of these two countries has been on the development of exports to Afghanistan. In this context, high-ranking officials of these countries have regularly visited Afghanistan, and signed many agreements with the Taliban to increase their trade with them. The last one was the visit of the Prime Minister of Uzbekistan to Kabul, where he signed several economic agreements with the Taliban, and opened a large exhibition of Uzbek products in Kabul.
For Turkmenistan, Afghanistan is a good destination for exporting oil and gas, as well as a route for transferring the Turkmen gas to the severely- needed markets of Pakistan and India. The project of transferring Turkmenistan's gas to the south, which was also one of the plans in the first Taliban rule, has now become a good opportunity to be realized in the form of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline project. In this context, the officials of Turkmenistan and the Taliban have met frequently, and consulted about the resumption of this project. Finally, in 11 September 2024, Afghanistan’s Prime Minister Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, along with Chairman of the People's Council of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, officially began the practical work of TAPI in Afghanistan.
Moreover, Afghanistan is the best option for energy exports from Central Asia to Afghanistan itself and to South Asia. In this regard, there are several unfinished projects, including the Casa 1000) The Central Asia-South Asia (power project, which Central Asian countries have high hopes for their implementation in the existing space.
In the transit sector, Afghanistan's role in connecting Central Asia to the South is also very important for Central Asian countries. It is one of the big dreams of all Central Asian countries, and they consider the existing space as the best opportunity to realize it. This issue has been one of the most important priorities of Central Asian countries, and one of their main agendas in dealing with the Taliban in the past three years. In this regard, there are many projects, but the most important of them which attracts the attention of most Central Asian countries is the so-called Trans-Afghan railway project, which connects Uzbekistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan. This project, which Kazakhstan has recently expressed its interest in joining it, is a big project that will make possible the inter-regional connection of Central and South Asia.
Among the Central Asian countries, only Tajikistan did not engage with the Taliban, because of its opposition to the group. But it is also slowly coming to the conclusion that without interacting with the Taliban, it cannot benefit from the many economic benefits that Afghanistan provides for that country. That is why Tajikistan has sent Syed Momin Yatimov, head of the National Security Committee of Tajikistan, to Kabul several times to open the way to negotiate and establish relations with the Taliban.
conclusion
Since more than thirty years ago, when the countries of Central Asia gained independence, Afghanistan not only could not be a good neighbor for them and help the economic development of these countries, but it was also a great source of instability and threat to them. Even during the U.S.'s presence in Afghanistan, when it was thought that the Central Asian countries would be able to strengthen their economic foundations by using American facilities, the opposite was true; Because Russia and China were less satisfied with the close interaction of the Central Asian countries with the US-backed government in Afghanistan. In addition, the war in Afghanistan itself was a big obstacle for Central Asian countries to benefit economically from Afghanistan.
With the emergence of new geopolitical axes, and the involvement of world powers in them, as well as the withdrawal of U.S. from Afghanistan, the country once again became a marginal country in geopolitical relations.
After regaining power in Afghanistan, however, the Taliban unexpectedly established a peaceful coexistence with its neighbors in foreign policy, and pursued a policy of positive economic interaction with them. In addition, the current environment in Afghanistan made Russian and Chinese powers optimistic about close interaction with Kabul.
Such a positive atmosphere provided the necessary opportunities for Central Asian countries to realize their economic goals in Afghanistan. Therefore, in the last three years, the four countries of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have established close relations with the Taliban, in order to take advantage of this opportunity. Recently, Tajikistan also realized the importance of engagement with the Taliban and is making preparations to establish relations with Kabul, in order to share in the political and economic benefits that Taliban-ruled Afghanistan can provide for it.
Although several factors have created the current atmosphere of optimism, the future situation depends on the future performance of the Taliban. From the very beginning, the Taliban has adopted a correct and measured foreign policy, and if this behavior continues, it will become possible to realize big economic dreams that bring multilateral benefits.
The only thing that probably makes the future of Afghanistan problematic is the internal policies of the Taliban. Of course, Afghanistan has an irreplaceable economic attraction for Central Asian countries, and they are unprecedentedly trying to use this opportunity. However, as long as the Taliban does not establish an inclusive government and respect the rights of Afghan citizens, especially women, we cannot hope for the permanent stability of Afghanistan and, as a result, the realization of the great common economic dreams in the country may not be possible.
Ahmad Meshaal, is an Afghan expert.
News code:3846
