Competition of Regional and International Processes in Afghanistan
In the past three years, regional countries and the international community have established their relations with the Taliban based on engagement. The Taliban has also taken a more interactive approach with countries, especially with Afghanistan's neighbors. Despite this, the international community and the Taliban have not reached a common agreement regarding issues such as inclusive governance, human rights, women's rights, Afghan ethnic and religious groups, state building, and formal recognition of the Taliban government; And it can even be said that there has been no understanding at all about these basic demands. From this point of view, it can be imagined that the process of state building and the process of official recognition of the Taliban government - as a conduit to the political future of Afghanistan - have now reached a political deadlock. This situation, however, is not a political deadlock among the regional countries, the international community and the Taliban, because the mutual needs of the Taliban and the international community can still be considered as an opportunity.
By: Abdul Rahim Kamel
Introduction
With the fall of the republican system in Afghanistan, the Taliban changed its nature from a military group to a political power. Now this political power, as a government, needs internal legitimacy and formal recognition to establish itself. Despite the fact that the "type of system building" and the "type of interaction with the international system" are the basic priorities and necessities of every newly established government, the Taliban government has not made significant progress in the process of system building and interaction with the international system during the past three years, in order to obtain official recognition.
Based on the functionalist approach, the type of political system and the type of interaction with the international system have a two-way relationship with each other. This is the reason that without the establishment of a popular political system in Afghanistan, the international system will not accept the consequences of the official recognition of the Taliban government.
According to the rules of the international system, a newly established government must fulfill two conditions to become a member of the international system: first, it must establish a legitimate government in its territory; And second, to prove its ability to implement the binding rules of international law in order to become a member of the United Nations. It seems that the Taliban government did not have the will or ability to implement this process and requirements during the last three years. The behavior of the Taliban shows that its leaders did not have the necessary motivation in this regard, nor did they have a precise understanding of the type of legal and diplomatic requirements. It was probably for this reason that the regional countries and the international system, by creating relatively informal interactions with the Taliban, decided to encourage and persuade it to accept the rules of good governance and official recognition in the international system.
By examining the behavior of the regional countries and the international community towards the Taliban, one can understand that the behavior has an encouraging and persuasive aspect, in order to create a mutual engagement with the Taliban. However, regional and international processes such as the Moscow format and the Doha process, have so far not led to the formation of an inclusive government or prepared the ground for the official recognition of the Taliban government. In this regard, there are some serious challenges that must be addressed.
The challenges of regional and international processes
It seems that the failure of regional and international processes to deal with the issues of Taliban - ruled Afghanistan is due to two major challenges, which are: 1- The approach of the Taliban government
The evidence shows that despite the interactive approach of the countries towards the Taliban government in the past three years, this group has not responded very positively to the encouraging behavior and demands of them. For example, forming an inclusive government as well as respecting the rights of women and ethnic and religious groups have been among the demands of regional countries and the international community, but the Taliban has considered these demands as interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs. In such a context, the future perspective the Taliban government, and the role of regional and international processes do not seem very clear.
The evidence shows that the Taliban government, without making any changes in its governance method, will practically remain within a centralized and ethnic structure, and Afghanistan will gradually sink into international isolation. It is obvious that the Afghan people will bear the severe consequences of this situation.
Psychologically, controlling all the political power and economic resources of Afghanistan is considered a great blessing for the Taliban leaders. During the last half century, the fall of the Kabul government and the formation of a new government has been the most important end goal of militant and insurgent groups in Afghanistan. Now, it seems that this success has put the Taliban government in a static state, and has closed the path of dynamism to it. But according to the systemic theory, if a political system does not have a correct understanding of the conditions and requirements of its environment, it will gradually lose its chance of survival and dynamism. The fall of the republican system is completely consistent with this theory, and it is considered a bitter and instructive lesson for the future of Afghanistan.
2- The approach of regional and international processes
The performance of regional and international processes such as the Moscow format and the Doha process also faces serious challenges despite some progress. The first challenge facing regional and international processes is their polarization. This means that there is a big conflict between the countries of the region and the West regarding the developments in Afghanistan.
The performance of the Doha process shows that the directors of it either do not have a correct understanding of the conditions of Afghanistan and the regional and international environment, or they are actually moving towards extreme unilateralism in the international environment. The United States and its western allies are worried about the extensive engagement of China, Iran and Russia with the Taliban government, and for any reason, they are trying to limit the role of regional countries and efforts in the future developments of Afghanistan. Therefore, some analysts consider the formation of the Doha process to mean the West's non-cooperation with the region, and they believe that the United States, as before, is taking unilateral actions against regional efforts and processes to resolve the Afghan crisis.
On the other hand, regional powers such as Russia, Iran and China interpret any kind of US and Western political return to Afghanistan as a disruption of the regional order. Despite this, the regional countries believe that without the cooperation of the West and the United States, the decision-making process for the future of Afghanistan would be vulnerable. Therefore, these countries are looking for the conditional presence of the West and the United States in the process of solving the Afghan crisis.
Competition of two processes and their dimensions
The two important regional and international processes that are currently competing in relation to Afghanistan, and especially the Taliban government, have significant differences in their approaches, demands and methods. Due to the fact that the Doha process is led by the United Nations and the United States, compared to the Moscow format, it is more recognized as a Western process. Accordingly, Western countries focus their demands more on human rights, girl education, and fighting against terrorism. However, the behavior of these countries clearly shows that they are not unanimous in their demands.
The conflicting behavior of the Western bloc towards the developments in Afghanistan, especially the Taliban government, is obvious. For example, while the British government and some European countries are looking for a way to engage with the Taliban government, the French government has taken a relatively strict approach towards the Taliban government. Moreover, while the US is trying to be in line with the demands of the European NATO members, it has adopted a more pragmatic policy, fearing a wider influence of regional countries in Afghanistan. Despite these differences, the Doha process as an international process is trying to advance its policies towards Afghanistan through a single channel. The effort of these countries to appoint a special representative for Afghanistan is exactly in this direction.
On the other hand, the dimensions of the regional process, in the form of the Moscow format or its surrounding meetings, seem relatively wider and more serious due to the neighborhood of its members with Afghanistan. Based on this, this process prioritizes the concerns and demands of the regional countries and Afghanistan's neighbors. Among the main priorities of the regional process, the following can be mentioned: the development of economic and trade relations between Afghanistan and regional countries; fighting against ISKP, and other terrorist and separatist groups; preventing the political and military presence of America and NATO in Afghanistan; the necessity of forming an inclusive government by the Taliban; and securing the fundamental rights of Afghan tribes, religious groups and women. Issues such as anti-narcotics measures, saving and improving Afghanistan's economy, and controlling the migration process of Afghans to neighboring countries and the region are also the next priorities of the regional process. In general, the regional process is trying to advance its demands and priorities in the field of Afghanistan's stability and development, through reliable regional mechanisms such as the "Regional Contact Group".
Taliban’s approach to regional and international processes
The performance of the Taliban government so far indicates that the Taliban leaders have a good relationship with the regional countries and Afghanistan's neighbors, and they feel that they can grow and strengthen more easily in this cultural-civilization field. On the contrary, the Taliban government will have many problems in interacting with the Western order, which is based on liberal democracy. Meanwhile, the political and civil opponents of the Taliban have more power to reason and maneuver in this intellectual-cultural field.
Historical experiences, especially the developments of the Cold War, have shown that the transformation of the world into two poles, East and West, has always led to the detriment of Afghanistan. This type of bipolar competition in the international arena has always aggravated the Afghan crisis, instead of solving it, and in such an environment, Afghans have been the biggest losers. The evidence shows that the Taliban government is trying to use the polarization of fronts and the competition of countries in Afghanistan to maintain the balance of its foreign policy, but this is not possible. Maybe the Taliban government has in mind the stable foreign policy version of the Zahir Shah era, but now Afghanistan does not have the conditions of that era.
While it seems that the polarization of East and West will continue for years, especially about how the West and the United States will be present again in Afghanistan, a question arises here: which pole will the Taliban choose to stabilize and develop their government in align with? Afghanistan's experience of the last half century, and the bitter history of governments allied with America, especially the form of the end of the republican system in Afghanistan, have had instructive lessons for the Taliban. Despite their economic and political need to the West Pole and their dependence on it, Taliban leaders do not trust Western countries.
In the meantime, one should also pay attention to the rivalries within the Taliban government. While the Taliban based in Kabul are looking for reforms and resolving differences with the international community, the ideological Taliban based in Kandahar prefer an isolated governance which is within the framework of beliefs and principles. For this reason, the engagement with the East Pole may be a priority for the ideological and powerful leaders of the Taliban.
Conclusion
In the past three years, regional countries and the international community have established their relations with the Taliban government based on engagement. The Taliban government has also taken a more interactive approach with countries, especially with Afghanistan's neighbors. Despite this, the international community and the Taliban have not reached a common agreement regarding issues such as inclusive governance, human rights, women's rights, Afghan ethnic and religious groups, state building, and formal recognition of the Taliban government; And it can even be said that there has been no understanding at all about these basic demands. From this point of view, it can be imagined that the process of state building and the process of official recognition of the Taliban government - as a conduit to the political future of Afghanistan - have now reached a political deadlock. This situation, however, is not a political deadlock among the regional countries, the international community and the Taliban, because the mutual needs of the Taliban and the international community can still be considered as an opportunity.
The long-term interests of the regional countries and the international community require that the Taliban government becomes an official, effective and accountable government in the near future. An informal government can never give a reassuring and rational answer to the concerns of regional countries and the international community.
On the other hand, the theory of dependence in international relations shows that in today's interdependent world, the Taliban government can never solve all the problems of Afghanistan alone, without official interaction with the international community.
Therefore, sooner or later, the Taliban government must fulfill the minimum international requirements and obligations in its governance style, so that it can obtain formal recognition and interact comprehensively with regional countries and the international community. The formation of an inclusive government and the observance of minimum social rights for Afghan women are among the necessities that the Taliban government must comply with.