By: Hasibullah Shahin
Introduction
South Asia is a distinct and fragmented region within a single geography whose actors have always been in conflict with each other in terms of religion, type of political system, ethnicity and global interactions. These confrontations have turned this region into a potential threat to the whole world. Meanwhile, some governments such as India and Pakistan are equipped with nuclear weapons and, in rare cases, they are likely to use these destructive weapons. On the other hand, some non-governmental actors such as extremist organizations and groups are also active in the region and are practically competing with the governmental actors. But what has most affected the political climate of this complicated region is the poison of extremism, which has led the governments to use it as a tool against each other and disrupt each other's interests in the region and other areas.
Meanwhile, what has affected the balance between India and Pakistan is their trans-regional ties with powers such as the United States and China. Since India has the capacity to economically compete with China, and is considered as one of the future economic giants of the world, it has always been considered as a trouble for China. Moreover, these two countries are grappling with long-standing territorial disputes that have made them suspicious towards each other. Over the past years, Beijing has added to its support for India's longtime enemy, Pakistan, to contain New Delhi, especially since China announced its Belt and Road geopolitical plan in 2013 which made Pakistan a key ally of China in South Asia. On the other hand, the United States, which seeks to contain China, has strengthen its relationship with India and has tried to counter the threat posed by China through creating a regional alliance called the "Indo-Pacific." If we look at the India-Pakistan confrontation in a global scale, we will find out that China's support for Pakistan is more based on non-ideological strategies and seeks the political-economic interests. In recent years, the Chinese government has managed to take control of the large parts of the United States and Russia’s traditional influence sphere through large-scale infrastructure projects, regardless of other countries’ ideology or political system. This policy has yielded positive results over the past years and has given China the upper hand in the political games of the region and world.
Although India, with the US support, has sought to maintain its supremacy in the Indian Ocean and South Asia, the developments of recent years, especially those of Donald Trump's era, have weakened the country’s position. The signing of a strategic agreement between Iran and China is one of these developments. Iran was an ally of India in the southwest. Iran is enjoying high economic, military and political capabilities, and could play the role of a good partner for India. However, New Delhi distanced itself from Tehran under the US pressure, and Beijing instead began its strategic negotiations with Iran.
Therefore, we can conclude that the political equations in South Asia are changing, and since the United States, as India's strategic ally, no longer is present in Afghanistan, the region is evolving in an increasingly manner. The main question which is going to be answered in this article is, what will be the effects of re-emergence of the Taliban and its closeness to China on the balance of power in South Asia? Given the above-mentioned question, the author assumes that the re-emergence of the Taliban will form a triangle with participation of China, Pakistan and Afghanistan, which will increase Islamabad's power and will have security implications.
Theoretical framework of the research
The ultimate goal is survival! This point has been made by the realists, who believe that the governments are interacting within a military sphere which is based on anarchy. This anarchy necessitates access to power, and since power resources are limited, it is measured by the amount of available power sources as well as the governments’ ability for survival. They believe that the current structure of the international system is devoid of any hierarchy, and it is the level of the countries’ self-reliance that defines their position in this structure. Waltz, the creator of this theory, believes that in such a system, every government seeks to evade the existing authority in order to gain more benefits, and this increases the threats. He considers the function of the governments to be dependent on the extent of their power and maintains that in such a system, power is not evenly distributed and each country can benefit from it according to its position in the structure.
In such a system, in which states seek to increase their power, the interests are defined in the context of survival, and few states can play the role of key actors. Given that the number of states has increased over the past century, we here have categorized the actors as follows in order to avoid the misunderstanding that all states are the main actors. Here, to clarify the discussion, I present the actors in the form of this categorization:
First-hand actors |
Second-hand actors |
Third-hand actors |
Fourth-hand actors |
Creators of the existing international system structure |
Rivals
of the existing international system structure |
Followers of the existing international system structure |
Followers of the existing international system structure |
The superior political, economic and military powers at the global level |
The better political, economic and military powers at the trans-regional level |
The good political, economic and military powers at the regional level |
The national
governments
seemingly are
independent, but really are dependent |
| Active encounters at the global level |
Active encounters at the trans-regional level |
Active encounters at the regional level |
Reactive encounters at the regional level |
Given this classification, we can easily explain the relations between different countries as well as the countries’ position in the international system.
The Taliban, China and South Asia
Afghanistan is a country with a special geopolitical position that is located among four regions of Asia. The country is actually known as the crossroads of Asia. In the last century, this country has always been subject to constant instability, which has had different levels. From a national perspective, Afghanistan is a country with an ethnic texture, from which some of these instabilities originate. The ethnic contradictions in Afghanistan are one of the factors that is hindering the formation of a national identity in the country: a striving for superiority which have roots in political-economic issues rather than identity ones. Since the role of tribes and tribal orders are still prominent in the traditional society of Afghanistan, the tribes consider these contrasts as their ethnic honors, an issue which has prevented the formation of larger identity context in this country. Meanwhile, given the fact that Afghanistan has been experiencing a wartime economy over the past decades, the country has preserved its traditional texture. So, creating any change in this texture requires a careful management through providing the necessary bases for production. Production not only puts an end to ethnic strife, but also eradicates social poverty.
At the regional level, Afghanistan has become a battleground for the regional countries’ proxy war since the beginning of the Soviet invasion of the country, and these countries have sought to achieve their destructive goals in this country by employing special groups. Here, we can refer to the confrontations between India and Pakistan. This approach has created complex challenges for the Afghan officials.
At the global level, Afghanistan has always been viewed by the major powers as a geostrategic region. They have always defined Afghanistan based on their geopolitical goals. Afghanistan has so far fought with the three major powers in the world. All of these powers have lost their position in the international system at the end of the wars. This happened to the United States once again this year. As a result of the developments, the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. Given the Taliban’s rise to power, the regional equations in South Asia were shattered and the group is seeking to revive its Islamic Emirate. From the very beginning, the Taliban government has sought to reach an agreement with China, as one of the world's leading powers. This agreement will determine not only the fate of the Taliban, but also the balance of power in South Asia.
Afghanistan is one of the “seemingly independent but really dependent” countries whose rulers always need foreign financial resources for their survival. Given the rise of China as one of the world's top economic giants, the Taliban are now trying to bring this economic giant to Afghanistan, a role that China is not reluctant to accept. This issue, besides Pakistan's influence over the Taliban, will lead to the formation of a triangle in South Asia by which Pakistan will gain more political-economic advantage over its longtime rival, India.
India, a strategic ally of the United States, failed to compete geopolitically with China during Trump's rule, and even in recent years, the country has lost its regional ally, Iran. Following the signing of a strategic agreement between Iran and China, New Delhi has actually faced serious challenges in terms of competing with Pakistan and China. Now that Afghanistan is also closing to China, the balance of power in South Asia would turn in Pakistan's favor, and this country will seek to expand its sphere of influence in Kashmir with China’s support.
Any change in South Asia’s balance of power could have security consequences. First, India's indifference towards Afghanistan is like a trap. New Delhi's silence towards Afghanistan's developments is aimed at containing China. Although China has already changed the balance of power in the region in its own favor, China's entry into Afghanistan would mean Beijing's involvement in a form of attrition warfare that is being pushed forward by the extremist forces, particularly the Islamic State.
Another consequence of the new balance of power in South Asia is that if Pakistan's power increases, Islamabad will try to restrain India in South Asia, which can eventually lead to a military confrontation. In that case, China is likely to clash with India, and this will postpone the both countries’ economic growth. As a result, the consequences of this war would be both politically and economically disastrous for China, India and the whole of South Asia. So, only if the balance of power in South Asia gets better managed by a leading actor like China, the relative stability of the region can be maintained and, consequently, the likelihood of war will be reduced.
Conclusion
In an international system in which all governments seek survival, any change, shift and disorder in balance of power would be provoking and trigger a serious reaction. The re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan as well as the significant influence of China and Pakistan on this regime, are shifting the balance of power in favor of Islamabad. But, what should not be forgotten is that this shift in the balance of power will securitize the situation more and would endanger India’s position as one of the main powers of the region. This threat may even force India to use military option.
In such a situation, therefore, what matters is the management of this balance in the region, and in this regard, China plays an important role as a global actor. Because in the event of war, China will also be involved and this makes the country to leave all of its long-term global goals. On the other hand, such a war will be very dangerous because all three countries of India, China and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, and any conflict will have dangerous consequences for the world.
Hasibullah Shahin is an expert in international relations.
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