IESS Exclusive interview with Dr. Sergei Kozhmyakin
Since the beginning of the battle of Aqsa Storm by the resistance forces in Gaza, the countries of Central Asia have also reacted to this issue at different levels. Although before the Gaza war, Central Asian countries and the Zionist regime were experiencing an increasing process of superficial and deep development of relations, after the war, these relations have been accompanied by some changes. It seems that the Gaza war has had an impact on the relations between the Zionist regime and the countries of the region: on the one hand, the foreign policy of the Zionist regime has faced new restrictions, especially in countries with a predominantly Muslim population as well as in Russia's spheres of influence; And on the other hand, the countries of the region also prefer to limit their interactions with the Zionist regime.
In order to analyze the recent developments in the relations between the Zionist regime and the countries of Central Asia, the Institute for East Strategic Studies (IESS) has conducted an exclusive interview with Dr. Sergei Kozhemyakin, an expert on regional political issues, and a political analyst for Pravda newspaper published in Moscow.
IESS: More than 6 months have passed since the war in Gaza. This war has severely affected the relations between the Islamic states and the Zionist regime. Has this war also affected the relations between the Central Asian governments and the Zionists, or do the regional governments still prefer to remain neutral?
Kozhemyakin: That's right. In fact, the events in the Middle East have become of global importance, and most countries in the world are involved in them to some extent. It can even be said that Israel's bloody and inhuman invasion of the Gaza Strip has become the most important event in international relations. The reaction of the world community to this war showed that its dependence on Western powers is gradually decreasing, and the unipolar system in the world is collapsing. But we are still far from reaching a multipolar system.
This is clearly visible in the attitude of the Islamic world. The Islamic world officially condemned Israel's aggression. However, contrary to some early predictions, Muslim countries did not form a common front against Israel, and (those which have relations with Zionists) did not cut diplomatic ties with that regime. Iran, Yemen's Houthi movement, and Hezbollah are exceptions here.
Central Asian republics also distance themselves from any involvement in this conflict, and repeat the behavior of some other non-western countries; That is, they verbally condemn Israel's crimes, and support the Palestinian people's right to self-determination. For example, at the meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in November, Central Asian countries voted to create an independent Palestinian state. They also had a common position in support of the UN resolution on May 10 regarding the full membership of Palestine in the UN.
At the same time, there are some obvious unspoken red lines that the countries of the region are not going to cross; Accordingly, they were divided into two groups during the vote for Canada's proposed amendment condemning Hamas: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, following Russia, refused to support it; And representatives of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan chose not to participate in the voting.
However, there is still no talk of suspending diplomatic and commercial relations with Israel in Central Asian countries. In fact, this is due to the unwillingness of local elites to disrupt relations with the West, rather than having close relations with the Zionist regime. By having a multilateral foreign policy, Central Asian countries try to benefit from the intensification of global competitions, and do not want to make a clear choice in favor of one country.
IESS: In many countries, including the United States, public opinion has followed a different path from that of the governments on the issue of Palestine. Do you think it was the same in Central Asia? How has the public opinion in the region been towards the Zionist regime?
Kozhemyakin: You are right. The Palestinian issue has shown the difference of views between governments and the majority of people in many countries. This is a good indication of the falsity of Western democracy. The authorities of American and European countries ignore the views of their citizens; To the extent that public protests in support of Palestine are brutally suppressed, and protesters are punished.
The conflict between public opinion and government policies also exists in Central Asia, albeit to a lesser extent. Unfortunately, no regional sociological studies have been conducted in recent months, but several factors show that pro-Palestinian sentiments are suppressed among the people. For example, the Department of Sociology of Bishkek State University (named after Karasev) conducted a survey with the participation of 818 respondents. 48% of respondents fully supported Palestine, 19% supported the UN plan to create a Palestinian state, 9% of respondents expressed sympathy for the Palestinians, just over 2% fully or partially supported Israel, and 22% found it difficult to answer this question.
The opinions of most of the citizens on social networks, as well as their participation in collecting humanitarian aid for the Palestinians are noteworthy. We should also mention some gatherings in support of the Palestinians in the countries of the region. More than a thousand people participated in these rallies in Bishkek.
This is not only because of religious commonalities, but also because of anger at the genocidal policy of the Zionist regime, as well as sympathy for the liberation struggle of the Palestinian people, which has been going on for more than seven decades. One cannot admire Israel's actions and still be a decent and honorable person. Currently, solidarity with the Palestinian people has united honorable people from different religions and nationalities.
But unfortunately, the ruling circles use different principles and preferences as the criteria for their actions. This dissonance is a serious alarm for the elites. If they continue to ignore the feelings of the majority of people, tension will start in the society.
IESS: During the last 6 months, there have been reports of sabotage actions against the interests of the Zionist regime in Central Asia. Can this news be verified? If yes, can it be claimed that such actions are organized?
Kozhemyakin: I am not aware of any organized mass action aimed at undermining Israel's interests in Central Asia. But I can point to the numerous initiatives of the people of this region, especially Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, to boycott Israeli goods. People demand not to buy cosmetics, food, etc. made in Israel, and they publish related videos on social networks. Considering the number of views and sharing of these videos on social networks, it can be said that these actions are supported by a significant part of the people.
The collection of humanitarian aid for Palestine has also been widely welcomed by the people of the region. Both official institutions (for example, in Kyrgyzstan, the Ministry of Finance has opened a special bank account, and parliamentarians have donated one day's salary to it), and private charitable organizations (such as Public Fund “Biz Birgemiz” in Kazakhstan) are active in this field.
In the early days of Gaza war, some media and political analysts believed that events in the Middle East would create a new wave of extremism and a flow of volunteers willing to fight on the Palestinian front. Currently, I am not aware of such cases. It is obvious that the authorities strongly suppress such efforts, for fear of creating discontent in the Western as well as activation of banned religious movements.
IESS: Central Asia has been declared as the orange and high-risk areas for the citizens of occupied Palestine to travel. Has this affected economic and trade relations between Israel and Central Asia? Are there any official statistics in this regard?
Kozhemyakin: Central Asian countries are not among Israel's main trade partners, although their trade turnover cannot be considered insignificant either. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has taken the lead in this regard. Kazakhstan's bilateral trade with Israel in 2022 amounted to $905 million, and in the first ten months of 2023 it was about $433 million. Astana is the main supplier of oil for this regime, and its export volume reaches 100,000 barrels per day. It has made Kazakhstan one of the main suppliers of "black gold" to the Zionist regime.
It is clear that Kazakhstan's exports to Israel have decreased from $817 million in 2022 to $363 million in 2023. But it is hard to say whether the decline was political or purely economic: the volume of oil supply has fluctuated a lot recently. As before 2015, Kazakhstan's exports to Israel reached $1.5 billion, but in 2017 it decreased to $131 million.
Of course, there are repeated requests in this republic to stop selling oil to Israel. However, officials try not to comment on this matter. At the end of the last year, only Kazmortransflot company stopped the transfer of Kazakh oil to Israel.
There are no reports in the open sources about the change in trade trends between the Zionist regime and other countries in the region. But we can definitely say that economic relations have not been completely cut off. Even in February, Uzbekistan's Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev and Israel's Minister of Economy Nir Barkat met and discussed with each other on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi International Conference. After this meeting, Israel supported Tashkent's membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Also in the same month, Israel announced its intention to invite 65,000 migrant workers from Uzbekistan, India and Sri Lanka. They are supposed to replace the Palestinian workers expelled from the occupied territories. At the same time, there is an intergovernmental agreement on labor migration between Tashkent and Tel Aviv, concluded in 2022.
Thus, in general, neither Israel nor the Central Asian countries are willing to sever existing ties. However, in an effort to avoid public discontent, Central Asian officials try to keep quiet on this matter.
IESS: Russia took a different position towards the Zionist regime in the recent Gaza crisis, which angered the Israeli authorities. Is it possible that these tensions with Russia spill over to Central Asia?
Kozhemyakin: Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia and the countries of Central Asia often take similar positions on international issues. This is especially evident in the case of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, which, along with Russia, are members of converging associations such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty (CSTO) Organization.
The similarity of these views is especially noticeable during the voting process in the UN General Assembly. It can be said that Russia, as well as neighboring China, partially neutralizes the influence of the West. They help the countries of the region to be able to defend positions that are different from the positions of Washington and Brussels; This is very important to cool the fire of the West and its allies.
However, I still do not see any signs that the deterioration of relations between Russia and Israel has had a serious impact on the Central Asian countries. Yes, they, along with Russia and many other countries, want to establish an independent Palestinian state and vote for a ceasefire in the United Nations, but they are still not ready to cut ties with the Zionist regime.
IESS: In general, how do you see the prospects of relations between Central Asian countries and the Zionist regime in the next year? What dynamics and developments might have a profound effect on these relations?
Kozhemyakin: It is very difficult to predict how these relations will develop, because there are two different factors here. On the one hand, the authorities of the Central Asian countries are clearly interested in keeping things as they are. That is, they verbally condemn Israel and defend an independent Palestinian state, but do not take any real and practical action, such as stopping trade with the Zionist regime.
On the other hand, however, today's international arena is very unstable. If Israel commits other heinous crimes in Gaza and the West Bank, or commits aggression against Lebanon, Syria, or Iran, this could worsen the situation. In this case, the ruling circles of Central Asia must choose and decide which side they are on: The Zionist regime and its Western allies; Or Iran, China and Russia (i.e. the forces that are in favor of reforming the current international relations system). Due to the adoption of a multilateral policy, these countries are unlikely to remain on the sidelines.
Meanwhile, people can also play a decisive role in changing the approaches of their officials. Many people in Central Asia are now opposed to the overly flexible policies of their governments. If the crisis escalates, they can loudly call on leaders to side with those who defend the values of justice and equality in international relations.
Sergei Kozhemyakin is a regional issues expert, and the political analyst of Moscow- based Pravda newspaper.
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