By: Abdul Rahim Kamil & Mir Ahmad Mashal
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Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. Theoretical Approach
3. The Connection Between the Taliban and Radical Islamists in Syria
4. Emotional and Religious Ties Between the Taliban and HTS
5. Possible Consequences of the Taliban Support for HTS
A.Portraying the Taliban as an Adventurous group
B.Legitimization of Taliban Opponents
C.Weakening of Kabul-Moscow Relations
D.Negative Impact on the Iran –Taliban Relations

1. Introduction

A realistic view of regional developments necessitates considering the Syrian crisis as part of the broader political-security mosaic of the Middle East. The chain of events in the region, following Gaza, Lebanon, and now Syria’s security developments, supports this perspective. From this viewpoint, the impact of the Syrian crisis on Afghanistan must also be analyzed as part of the broader implications of major Middle Eastern developments on Afghanistan.

Key questions include:

1. What is the strategic relationship between Afghanistan and the Middle East?
2. What position does Afghanistan hold in Middle Eastern geopolitics?
3. Is Afghanistan part of the regional security bloc of the Middle East?
4. To what extent is Afghanistan integrated into the regional interests of the Middle East, and conversely, how much is the Middle East, particularly Syria, part of Afghanistan’s foreign policy interests?
5. More specifically, what impact does the insurgency of extremist groups under the umbrella of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government, have on Afghanistan under Taliban rule? And what are the consequences of the Taliban government's stance on this crisis?
 

Broadly, there are two perspectives regarding Afghanistan's strategic relations with the Middle East:

1. Classical Perspective: In classical international relations, Afghanistan is not directly connected to the Middle East. This perspective, which is security-oriented, gives little weight to issues such as interdependence, economic interactions, and other emerging elements in international relations.

Under this view, Afghanistan is not part of the Middle Eastern political-security system, and regional developments have no direct influence on Afghanistan, as was the case up to the 1970s.
 

2. Modern Perspective: This perspective asserts that globalization has brought previously distant regions and borders closer. In this case. It can be said thatthe emergence of some new actors in Arab countries has linked Afghanistan to the overall developments in the Middle East.

In other words, the involvement of certain Arab nations, like the UAE and Qatar, in the great power games in Afghanistan since 2001 has tied Afghanistan to broader Middle Eastern developments. the UAE and Qatar have, over two decades, been centers for Afghanistan's diplomatic relations with the international community.

Although Afghanistan is not directly part of the Middle East's regional security architecture, the involvement of Middle Eastern Muslims in Afghanistan’s fight against Soviet occupation, and Afghanistan's emotional solidarity with events in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, establish a connection. Afghanistan views itself as part of the geopolitics of Islamic nations, implying that any development in the Middle East, particularly in Syria as a major conflict zone, directly influences Afghanistan.
 

Understanding the behavior and perspective of the Taliban regarding developments in Syria requires a realistic grasp of their foreign policy approach.

The Taliban officially portrays itself as a national and Afghan movement, and has thus far avoided any transnational ambitions for various reasons. This characteristic is considered by experts as the main distinction between the Afghan Taliban movement and ISIS. With this official stance, the Taliban government seeks to pursue a neutral foreign policy. With this type of approach to its foreign policy, the Taliban implicitly denies its strategic relations with other radical Islamist groups in the region.

However, some factions and supporters of the Taliban do not recognize the modern political boundaries. They view the entire Islamic world as their homeland, and envision the geopolitics of Islamic countries as the ideal land for the Islamic Mujahideen in the present era.

With such an ideological and aspirational interpretation, some theoretical and emotional connections are forged between the Afghan Taliban and Islamist groups in the region, particularly in Syria, which serves as a hub for Islamist groups. With this approach, some Taliban leaders consider themselves as a model for Islamist movements. Evidence suggests that the Taliban government has maintained some kind of relationship with other Islamist movements and groups in the region, at various and hidden levels.

That is why, despite the demands of the regional countries for the Taliban government to sever ties with extremist and separatist groups, there is still evidence of their presence on Afghan soil, and the Taliban government has not yet adopted a clear and decisive policy in this regard.

With this approach of the Taliban government, the hypothesis is strengthened that the Taliban has strategic ties with extremist groups under the umbrella of HTS in Syria; Especially, since some of the militants fighting alongside the HTS in Syria speak the common languages ​​of the region surrounding Afghanistan, and Uyghur, Tajik, and Uzbek fighters are present in the ranks of the HTS.
 

The Taliban's unexpected victory and control of Kabul led to widespread celebrations among regional Islamist groups. Meanwhile, the satisfaction of HTS with the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan was more noticeable. At the time, this behavior by HTS was interpreted as more of an emotional one. The perception was that Jabhat al-Nusra, as the core of HTS, might have rejoiced over the Taliban's victory because of its opposition to ISIS.

Similarly, in the recent Syrian crisis, the Taliban movement in Afghanistan is happy with the success of HTS in overthrowing the Assad government and has welcomed it with a kind of sympathetic approach.
To explain why the Hanafi Taliban are happy with the successes of a Salafi group in Syria, one can point to their Sunni affiliations and tendencies.

The Taliban government adopted a dual policy towards the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. On the one hand, by supporting Hamas, the Taliban showed that it had a convergent approach to the Palestinian crisis. On the other hand, by remaining silent towards Hezbollah and the martyrdom of its commanders, the Taliban showed that it had a divergent approach towards another front of the same crisis.

This dual policy towards a single crisis showed that an important part of the Taliban’s approach towards issues is from a sectarian perspective. This approach can also be generalized towards the issue of Syria. That is, even if there is no ideological link between the Salafi HTS and the Taliban, the Taliban’s positive view towards the HTS’s recent victory can be interpreted in terms of sectarian affiliations and Sunnism.

In such a situation, how can the future of Afghanistan be assessed? One hypothesis that can be proposed is that although the Taliban has conflicts with Salafi movements in Afghanistan - because these movements are political power rivals to the group- the Taliban strategically supports the Sunni-oriented approach of Islamist groups indirectly.

This policy could pose challenges for Afghanistan’s future. The Taliban, having previously suffered severe setbacks due to its closeness with Salafi groups like al-Qaeda, will likely continue to face such repercussions in the future. Moreover, Afghanistan's three-decade history has shown that deviations by Afghan movements from the principles of Hanafi jurisprudence have led these movements and the Afghan people into crises.

Afghanistan's socio-religious system, which has been shaped by the peaceful coexistence of Hanafi Sunni Islam and Shia Islam, cannot tolerate Salafi ideologies. From this perspective, the Taliban must maintain a clear understanding of domestic conditions and regional dynamics to distance itself from Salafi currents. Otherwise, Afghanistan’s fragile stability could be jeopardized.

5. Potential Consequences of the Taliban Support for HTS
If the Taliban’s support or alignment with HTS turns from a possible hypothesis into a political reality, it could have the following consequences for the region and Afghanistan:
 

The Taliban's support for groups like HTS in Syria would solidify claims and reports regarding the Taliban government hosting Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), foreign fighters, and other extremist and separatist groups in the region. The minimum consequence of such adventurous policies would be severe opposition from regional countries to the Taliban government, branding it as a supporter of extremist groups in the region.

B: Legitimization of Taliban opponents
From a political logic perspective, any potential alignment and cooperation between the Taliban government and groups like HTS and its allies, who overthrew Syria’s central government through rebellion, would lend legitimacy to the role and function of anti-Taliban forces. If the Taliban government overlooks this subtle point, it may lose ground in the “soft war” against its military and political opponents.

C: Weakening of Kabul - Moscow Relations
It seems that the Taliban's support for extremist groups such as HTS and its allies in Syria could strain Kabul-Moscow relations. A close examination of the tactics of the wars in Ukraine and Syria reveals a deep connection between the two. From every perspective, Russia’s political prestige has been intertwined with the outcome of the Syrian conflict. Given this context, while the Taliban government needs the support and alignment of Russia as a major regional player, any violation of regional norms and security by the Taliban, particularly if it strengthens and expands extremist movements in the region, would impose serious repercussions on Afghanistan’s current situation. Furthermore, stronger political and security ties between the Taliban government and HTS could prompt Russia to reconsider removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations.

D: Negative Impact on Iran-Taliban Relations
While Afghanistan and Iran, as two Islamic countries, bear religious responsibility for the fate of the Islamic community and for countering the interference of Islam's enemies, potential Taliban government support or collaboration with HTS in Syria could negatively affect Iran-Afghanistan relations, due to the security and political implications of fostering insurgent extremism in the region. Iran views maintaining stability in all regional countries as a cornerstone of regional order.

Hence, if the Taliban government’s behavior concerning the Syrian crisis is interpreted as strategic support for anti-government and destabilizing activities in the region, threatening the strategic interests of neighboring countries, it could influence Iran’s engagement policies with the Taliban government. If the Taliban violates the rules of good neighborliness and peaceful relations with its neighbors, the sense of distrust towards the Taliban government could spread to other countries as well.
 

Despite the establishment of Taliban rule in Afghanistan, the country’s situation is so fragile that any unbalanced and biased policy of the Taliban may reactivate the silent and hidden faults in Afghanistan. While the players of the Great Game are looking to find a playing field in the region, any ill-considered move will turn Afghanistan into a playing field again.

Based on its declared policy, therefore, the Taliban government should adhere to a policy of neutrality in all its dimensions. The current conditions in Afghanistan require the Taliban government to prioritize Afghanistan’s interests at the regional and international levels and, with this logic, decide on its political action. In such a logical strategy, neither the future of the internal crisis in Syria is Afghanistan’s priority, nor does Afghanistan, in the current circumstances, have the potential to enter into complex, transnational political games in the Middle East as a transnational political actor.

Abdul Rahim Kamil & Mir Ahmad Mashal, are experts on Afghanistan issues