By: Dr. Amin Partow

Introduction
Unlike India, Pakistan did not inherit much military industry from Britain. Pakistan’s Defense Industries, which was formed in 1951, had to start everything from scratch. The only reliable defense industry in the country was Karachi shipyard, which was just related to the construction of civilian vessels. Until the mid-1960s, Pakistan failed to develop its domestic defense industry. This was mainly due to the lack of funds as well as the lack of resources to transfer military technology to the country. From the mid-1960s, Pakistan turned to China to build its own military industries. The Pakistan’s heavy defeat by India in the 1971 war made Pakistan to take great steps, beyond the production of small arms ammunition and explosives. With the help of China, and to a lesser extent, some European countries such as Sweden and France, Pakistan was able to develop its defense industry in the field of aircraft manufacturing. China's assistance played an important role in the production of tanks and armored vehicles, rocket artillery and rocket launchers, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles, and anti-aircraft systems. Since the mid-1990s, Ukraine also transferred some defense technologies to Pakistan in the field of tank and ammunition production.

Pakistan started exporting defense products since 1980s. A wide range of countries were customers of Pakistan's military products. First, some Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, which mostly bought weapons from this country to help Pakistan's economy. Second, the global black market of arms, through which some western intelligence agencies used to buy Pakistani weapons to help militant groups; As CIA bought Pakistani weapons for the Afghan Mujahideen during the occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviets, and for the Bosnian fighters during the Balkan wars. In the same way, Arab countries started buying weapons from Pakistan to arm the militias under their support. Finally, developing countries turned to Pakistan to buy cheap weapons, without political problems. From the Republic of Azerbaijan to Nigeria and Myanmar, they have been among the buyers of Pakistan's weapons.

Despite this, Pakistan's defense industry has neither been able to provide an optimal level of defense self-sufficiency for the Pakistan Army, nor has it been able to have an active presence in the world markets and generate significant earnings. Unlike countries like Turkey and India, Pakistan's defense industry has not grown much. During the years 2022-2023, the export of Pakistan's defense industry was about US$ 415 million, which shows a significant growth compared to US$ 53 million in previous years. But in the same period, India managed to export US$ 2.630 billion of defense products. Turkey has also achieved an amazing record of US$ 10 billion, and has become the 11th largest arms exporter in the world. But Pakistan still imports most of its defense needs. Although Pakistan has started the production of military products by offsetting the products of China and Turkey, its supply chain is largely dependent on foreign countries.

But what are the main obstacles to the growth and development of Pakistan's defense industry? Why haven’t these industries made significant progress like Turkey and India? Among the existing obstacles in this industry (lack of investment, technology transfer problems, weakness in the supply chain, lack of specialized manpower, corruption, and lack of relative advantage in production and cost price), which one has a more important role? And finally, how can Pakistan's defense industry use the current capacities and opportunities in front of it?

Current state of Pakistan's defense industry
Currently, Pakistan's defense industry is largely limited to the production of ammunition (especially artillery ammunition, rockets, mortars, tanks and light weapons). In major items, Pakistan is still either an importer or does offset and licensed production, with limited technology transfer. Although Pakistan manufactures the JF-17 Thunder (fighter aircraft) with the help of China, its reliance on imported parts from China (and in the past, the engine from Russia) is so much that it should be considered as an assembly. Despite the development of a large number of UAVs (such as Uqab, Shahpar, Salar and Burraq), Pakistan has been forced to purchase Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci attack drones from Turkey. This issue is also true for helicopters, and Pakistan hopes that China and Turkey will transfer technology and provide the basis for licensed production within Pakistan. In the maritime section, Pakistan also relies heavily on Turkey and China, and the production of submarines, frigates or other military supply vessels is being done with their help. It is obvious that China and Turkey set certain limits for technology transfer to Pakistan.

 In the field of ground weapons, Pakistan has reached complete self-sufficiency with the help of China in some areas. For example, Anza shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles and Baktar Shikan anti-tank missiles (which are copies of the Chinese Vanguard and Red Arrow missiles) are completely domestically produced. Regarding tanks, however, Pakistan reliance on China is still very extensive. Although Al-Khalid tank is introduced as a domestic production, but it is dependent on China for the engine and cannon.

 Regarding armored vehicles, although some products such as the Talha armored vehicle have been exported to some countries to a large extent, but its low technology level and disproportionate protection against new threats are no longer suitable for today's world and current market. Pakistan has an independent capability in the production of ballistic missiles and all types of rockets (such as the Fatah, Azar and Ghazab rocket systems), but it is still dependent on China in the production of artillery. The plan to produce 300 pieces of SH-15 155 mm howitzers inside Pakistan has been made possible only by using Chinese parts.

In general, the current state of Pakistan's defense industry is as follows:

In spite of important developments, Pakistan's defense industry is dependent on foreign imports in many key defense items; the domestic production is limited, and in many cases highly dependent on the foreign supply chain;
Defense products manufactured by Pakistan have a low- level technology, and their technology is also imported (mainly from China);
Licensed Production of weapons in Pakistan has not been accompanied by much technology transfer, and what has been transferred is highly dependent on foreign sources and has a low level technology;
The level of innovation and creativity in Pakistan's defense industries has been very low, and they are not much risk-taking in designing and developing weapons;
Pakistan does not have much advantage in the production of military equipment, but in the field of ammunition production (mainly artillery ammunition, and small arms) it has some advantages in terms of price and quality.

Why is Pakistan's defense industry not developed?
A series of problems have caused Pakistan's defense industries to not exceed a certain limit of production and development. In this regard, several main reasons seem clear:

Lack of investment: The big problem of Pakistan's defense industry is the lack of investment. Although Pakistan's military budget is a significant amount (more than 2.6% of the GDP for 2022, and this is excluding the significant hidden budget of the army), the share of the defense industry, especially the research and development sector, is very small. The main focus in the defense sector is on nuclear weapons. Pakistan spends one to two billion dollars annually on nuclear weapons, followed by its nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles, but other defense sectors are deprived of significant funding.

Corruption and Management problems: Pakistan is suffering from a high level of management corruption, and the army is not exempt from this corruption either. Although the development and research sector has a small share of the budget, this small share is also subject to abuse. In addition, there are inefficient and conservative managers who are an obstacle to the development of the defense industry.

Lack of specialized manpower: Despite the presence of young and efficient specialized and educated manpower, Pakistan is facing a crisis of attracting them in the defense industry. Most of the country's scientific elites tend to migrate to the United States and European countries, and this issue deprives the defense industry of specialized manpower to a large extent. This is in addition to the fact that low wages and Unprofessional behavior make working in the defense industry undesirable.

Problem of technology transfer: Pakistan does not have access to the transfer of advanced western military technology. The transfer of military technology from Turkey and China has also been limited, because it reduces the profitability of the two countries' industries. Apart from these, efforts to access other sources of technology has also had little success. Pakistan tried to approaching Russia in the field of military technology. But this effort faced difficulties after the United States imposed sanctions on Russia through the CAATSA law. Pakistan is also facing many problems from India, because every time it tends to reach an agreement with a country (especially European countries) about military technology, India prevents it by exerting influence. For example, India has implicitly threatened that if Turkey cooperates with Pakistan, New Delhi may supply arms to Armenia and even Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

Low capacity to absorb technology: As a country with a low level of technology and science, Pakistan has a low capacity to absorb advanced military technology. For example, unlike a country like Iran, which alone has engaged in the reverse -  engineering of every possible weapon, Pakistan has shown limited ability even compared to Iran in this regard.

Lack of attention to quality: Another problem of Pakistan, which seems to be partly due to the transfer of old military technology from China, is the lack of attention to quality. In the past, China's defense products emphasized more on the element of quantity than on quality, and this problem has also been inherited by Pakistan. This lack of quality is due to the reduction of production standards as well as the elimination of many inspection and testing processes of the final product. Of course, Pakistan has reduced this quality problem to some extent in the ammunition production sector. But in other cases, there is no satisfaction with Pakistan's military products. For example, after buying Talha armored personnel carriers (APC), Iraq stopped ordering them and practically took them out of service. Myanmar and Nigeria are also apparently unhappy with the purchase of the JF-17 fighter, and do not intend to order more of it from Pakistan.

Political problems: Pakistan has had complex calculations in arms exports. The fear of Western sanctions, the fear of the deterioration of relations with Russia, and the effort to protect China's side have caused Pakistan to undergo complex calculations regarding the export of arms.

Pakistan's defense industry and new opportunities
As stated above, Pakistan's defense industry has witnessed a significant growth in the past year, with the country's military exports have increased from US$ 53 million to more than US$ 415 million. The major part of this increase was due to the war in Ukraine, where Pakistan has largely exported artillery ammunition to Ukraine with the mediation of Britain. However, Pakistan has not been able to use the capacity of this new market as it was supposed to. Although the European countries had a significant cash fund to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine, Pakistan could not respond to this need on a large scale. There were rumors that Pakistan might provide weapons such as Anza shower-fired anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, but no picture of using this weapon by Ukrainian forces has been released yet. There have also been rumors that Britain and the US have asked Pakistan to supply some ammunition (such as cannonballs) needed by Israel to attack Gaza and Lebanon (which Serbia and India are doing, for example), but it is unlikely that Pakistan would have done such a thing.

Now that Pakistan is facing deep economic problems, and the military budget is putting severe pressure on the government, the current plan of Pakistan is to export military products to earn money. This revenue not only will help to increase the GDP and provide a part of the military budget, but also reduce the pressure of public opinion on the army and the government. At the same time, there may be other opportunities, such as the improvement of relations with the United States, the flow of economic aid from the West and other countries, and the reduction of weapons imports.

But the obstacles mentioned above will largely prevent the development of Pakistan's defense industry. Moreover, Pakistan's limited industrial capacity to produce steel and other metals, along with the underdeveloped sector of the civilian industry that can help the defense industry, are further reasons for Pakistan not being able to increase its defense production capacity. This is of course, apart from the vast domestic needs of Pakistan. The country is now facing two low-intensity, but widespread, military conflicts in Baluchistan and Waziristan, and major resources will be directed towards them.

Conclusion
As the increase in the budget deficit, along with the increase in the military budget, has increased public discontent against the army in Pakistan, the Pakistan government and army are thinking of increasing the export of defense products, collecting revenue, expanding foreign relations, and reducing the import of weapons. But due to the diversity of Pakistan's defense needs, low technology level, limited foreign relations, and Pakistan's administrative and political problems, all these plans have structural limitations.  
Although Pakistan's military exports have shown an eight-fold growth in the last two years, this growth was only achieved due to the export of ammunition, and it is likely that with the end of the Ukraine war, this small market for Pakistan's defense products will also no longer exist. Especially since the low quality of products, like JF-17, has made countries reluctant to buy weapons from Pakistan.
 
Dr. Amin Partow, is an expert in Military and Security Studies.