By: Abdul Rahim Kamel

Introduction

Regarding the Taliban’s rise to power and the US military defeat in Afghanistan, we should always keep three important factors in mind, because these three factors will play a fundamental role in the Taliban’s political activism as well as interaction between the US and the Taliban in the future.
The first factor is the idealistic beliefs of the Taliban movement. The political movements often collapse after the fall of their political structure. However, after the fall of all its military and political structures by the United States in 2001, the Taliban not only did not vanish, but also became more determined. This is the main characteristic of the ideological and idealistic movements. This intellectual nature has also led to a strong connection between the Taliban and other radical and ideological movements in the region. Therefore, the influence of the Taliban in the Islamic countries is more than any other movement. In the last twenty years, no radical movement, including Al-Qaeda and the ISIS, has managed to defeat a central government, and thus they do not control any specific geography or government. From this point of view, the Taliban enjoys a high position and dignity among the Islamic movements, and this idealistic sense may tempt the Taliban to adopt more ambitious policies in Islamic countries after consolidation of their power.

The second factor regarding the victory of the Taliban and the military defeat of the United States was the foreign supports of the Taliban, which are still a determining factor for the future of Afghanistan. The fact is that the victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan cannot be interpreted only as a reflection of the US military defeat against the Taliban. Rather, it reflects Washington's defeat against the regional countries. In the eyes of the American citizens and politicians, this factor has been more important and annoying. Because of this long war and disgraceful defeat, the US has harbored some grudges against the regional countries, and the political history of the US shows that the country will probably intend to use the Taliban in the return phase of the game.

The third factor in the victory of the Taliban was the political differences between the contenders for power in Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani considered himself as the main owner of power. This came as Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah were each looking for preparing the ground for their return to power, and other jihadi leaders were present as opposition. Now the equation is the same and only the Taliban has taken the place of Ashraf Ghani's government. This situation will form the next political fronts in Afghanistan.

These three factors not only played a decisive role in the victory of the Taliban and the defeat of the United States, but also have created objective powers for the Taliban government and caused the group, unlike the republic, to appear as a powerful actor in front of the regional countries and the United States. In other words, these manifestations of the Taliban’s objective power have persuaded the neighboring countries and even the United States to somehow tolerate the Taliban’s presence. Therefore, it is necessary for us to investigate the capabilities of the Taliban, as an active power, in order to find out why some countries in the region as well as the US government are determined to pursue a policy of long-term relationship with the Taliban.

The real capabilities of Taliban as an activist government

The power of choice: Unlike the republic, the Taliban has the authority to establish foreign relations with the neighboring countries, regional powers and the United States. Due to their competition with the US, the regional countries supported the Taliban over the past years in order to throw the US forces out of the region. Now, the Taliban, as the winner of the game, has the power to choose among these political rivals. The Taliban believe that in the next game among the neighboring countries, the regional powers and the United States, whoever they choose, they can freely and successfully play the game with them. It is surprising that the neighboring countries as well as other powers such as India, China, Russia, and the United States, each want to interact with the Taliban based on a win-win rule. The Taliban believe that this play space is not available for the US and the regional countries as it is for them (Taliban). The Taliban maintain that they can still resist against the US through strategic interaction with the regional and neighboring powers. On the contrary, it is not possible for the US to persuade the regional powers like Iran, Russia and China to act against the Taliban government once again like in 2001.

The power of threat: In the complex game of politics, there is a Machiavellian principle that says instead of being popular, it is better to be frightening. Not only the destructive powers of history, but also the radical Islamic movements of the last twenty years have tried to show a scary, dangerous and cruel face, in order to discourage their opponents from any resistance and bargaining. This constructed nature leaves its impact on the other side in a very technical way, and pushes the opponent towards toleration and compromise. While being a violent and radical power, the Taliban can also easily unite and merge with Al-Qaeda, the ISIS, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and other fundamentalist groups in China, Central Asia and all the Islamic countries. It is possible for the Taliban to provide any of these groups with an open strategic space near Afghanistan’s borders in order to gain more concession. In the same way, the Taliban can provide covert support for the terrorist groups, and then in a political and dramatic game, oppose these groups in an apparent way, so that they can blackmail the United States. This is exactly what the Pakistani government did for the last 20 years with the Taliban's card.

The Interest in continuing war: The Taliban is no longer a military group and has turned into a political body. But it never wants its military body to distance itself from the atmosphere of war and jihad.These three factors of the Taliban's real power have been analyzed realistically by both the regional countries and the US government, their strategists have a correct picture of it. All of the points mentioned above, will force the American government to not completely abandon Afghanistan like it did in the 1970s.These mentioned factors and the objective capabilities of the Taliban have caused the US government to enter into a long-term and wide-ranging policy towards the Taliban and the future of Afghanistan. Therefore, the US government, beyond its declared policies, pursue two policies towards the Taliban, which is explained below.

Washington’s policy towards the Taliban
 

The evidence shows that the US government is trying to implement at least the security and strategic parts of the Doha agreement in a way that takes into account the interests of the both sides. One of the major agreements between the US and the Taliban, which is basically the foundation of the Doha agreement, is that the interests of the US and its allies should not be threatened by the Taliban in any way. This means that the Taliban should not adjust its political, economic and security policies in a way that serve the interests of the opponents of the US and its allies.

That is why after Russia's invasion of Ukraine as well as the presence of the Taliban diplomats in China, Russia and Iran, the US government adopted stricter measures against the Taliban.
After the media reported that the decision to hold “The Assembly of Afghans" has been made in China, the US State Department clearly said that holding such a Loya Jirga cannot help the Taliban gain international legitimacy - Although the Americans had previously supported the necessity of holding a Loya Jirga in Afghanistan.

After the Taliban built the symbol of Beit-ol-Moqaddas in Kabul and advertised it in the media, the western media expressed more concern about the violation of human rights and the Taliban's relationship with Al-Qaeda. As a result, the representative of the United States held several meetings with a wide range of the Taliban’s opponents in the regional countries. The meetings were interpreted as giving credit to these forces and it caused the displeasure of the Taliban government.

it is true that these actions of the US are signs of political tension between Washington and the Taliban, but in fact, the purpose of these tensions is to put pressure on the Taliban to interact with the US, and Washington has not really decided to enter into a phase of full-scale strategic opposition with the Taliban.
It seems that the US entered into a political agreement with the Taliban in Doha, and based on that agreement, the republic was replaced with the Taliban, and now the group have come to stay in Afghanistan.
After the last presidential elections in Afghanistan, which was held against the wishes of the Americans, the United States gradually came to the conclusion that the Taliban could be more useful for the US than the republican government.
Afghanistan's geopolitical situation allows the country to be connected with South Asia, Central Asia, China and the Middle East. Through its presence in Afghanistan, the US wanted to make a political and security use of this geopolitical opportunity. That is why Afghanistan’s neighboring countries considered the presence of the US as an objective threat.

This situation still encourages the US to force the Islamic Emirate to enter into a strategic relationship with the US and its allies. The evidence shows that if the Taliban - with their current intellectual and military characteristics - strategically unite with the US, Washington can exert all the necessary pressures on the Central Asian countries, China, and Iran through the Taliban. Some countries in the region have also realized this potential threat. This is comes as the republic, as a democratic government consisting of national institutions, could not fulfil Washington’s wishes regarding Afghanistan neighboring countries.

This policy as well as the US's views towards Afghanistan's peripheral region has provided a great opportunity for the Taliban to choose or gain concession. In fact, the victory of the Taliban and the opportunities that are provided for the group are the result of this conflict of interests in the international community and the region. Over the time, the Taliban are forced to engage in more objective politics and negotiations with the countries of the region and the United States due to their economic needs. The US is also trying to bring the game to the same point, so that the Taliban would force to make a final and clearer choice because of this need.
This is the reason why the US government has seized the assets of Afghanistan and does not provide direct cash aids to the Taliban. The liquidity situation of the Afghan banks is not good. In this way, the US government wants to push the Taliban towards Iran, Pakistan, China and Russia to solve their economic problems.

It is clear that the cost of supplying the Taliban and the economic bankruptcy of Afghanistan is very heavy for the mentioned governments, and after a while they will express their inability.
I have two hypotheses in order to explain my opinion clearly; First, the US will not leave the region like it did in the 1990s. The only difference is that the US government is no longer interested in deploying troops in its spheres of influence, because this country has made a lot of progress in military and war technology and tries to do this task as much as possible through this technology. Second, based on the same capabilities as stated above about the Taliban, the group realistically has its own attractions for the United States. But what has caused the Afghan citizens and analysts to ignore this attraction is their idealistic views towards the policies of the international community and the US. Based on a realistic view, however, the issue of human rights, women's rights, democracy and similar issues are in fact a kind of cover and pressure tool for the US.

It can even be said that highlighting the danger of terrorism as well as threats against the US interests is a cover and tool of pressure for Washington. The US has been remotely monitoring the entire geography of Afghanistan both during the war with the Taliban and now. So, if it wants, it can thwart any suspicious attempts without the permission of the Taliban.
Therefore, in the writer's opinion, the US government has decided to push the Taliban towards a path of strategic interaction through diplomatic pressures. Therefore, these pressures cannot be interpreted as a serious and fundamental opposition of the US to the Taliban.
 

The experience shows that the countries that are involved in Afghanistan's affairs do not invest only on a single faction. This policy is so clear that there is no doubt about their double game. Even some political leaders inside Afghanistan played a double game with the republic and the Taliban in the last twenty years. The US has also begun a double game in the recent years.
In order to have a powerful leverage on the Taliban, the US has been always looking for a powerful rival for the Taliban in the political scene of Afghanistan. In general, the US foreign policy is based on the carrot and stick policy, which in the US foreign policy literature, it is referred to as a gunboat diplomacy. This means that there is always a weapon installed behind the flag of the US diplomacy boats. The evidence shows that the US is currently using the same method in its diplomacy with the Taliban.

Based on this method of diplomacy, the recent meetings of Thomas West, the US special representative for Afghanistan, with the Taliban’s opposition leaders gain a clear meaning.
Certainly, the American strategists have considered the possible option of not getting along with the Taliban. Therefore, if the Taliban does not interact with the US, the US government will apply various political pressures on the Taliban. It is in this case that the US needs a united opposition force against the Taliban. Washington may even consider this opposition force as an alternative to the Taliban government, as it did during the era of republic government.

Therefore, Thomas West's meetings with the Taliban’s opponents in the neighboring countries may be repeated, which can give a higher political prestige to the opposition forces. Due to the Afghan people’s distrust of the US, it will take time and money so that the US can once again create a politically coherent faction of different spectrums of the Taliban’s opponents in order to put pressure on the Taliban or use it as an alternative for the possible scenarios. Washington’s experience in Afghanistan also confirms this method, because without the existence of the Northern Alliance, the US’s political and military victory against the Taliban in 2001 seemed very difficult.
If the relationship between the United States and the Taliban reaches the level of military confrontation due to the Taliban’s interactions with Al-Qaeda or the regional rivals of the United States, Washington needs a known political and military force to control the geography and administration of Afghanistan.

This possible scenario shows that the US government, by the help of its political allies in the region, seeks to strengthen the Afghan opposition forces too. The evidence shows that only those individuals and civil institutions which have been forced to leave Afghanistan due the rule of the Taliban are complaining about the human rights violations of the Taliban. They also accuse the United States of abusing human rights slogans. On the contrary, the opposition leaders who are living in Turkey and other countries are trying to adapt themselves to the US policy and, if possible, begin a kind of interaction with the Taliban government. After a meeting with the opposition leaders, the US representative also noted that these leaders do not have a great desire for violence.

Based on this view, the opposition leaders no longer rely on the human rights issues and the US’s liberal slogans to strength their long-term relations with the United States; Instead, they have put their focus on other issues such as joint fight against terrorism or preventing Al-Qaeda’s rise in Afghanistan, and in this way they try to interact with America.
It seems that the United States and Turkey are trying to gather different ranges of traditional anti-Taliban leaders in order to have the upper hand in Afghanistan both in case of interaction or confrontation with the Taliban. This strategy, in the long term, will make the countries that are aligned with the Taliban to work harder to strengthen cultural generations aligned with them in Afghanistan.

Because the Taliban could force the US to accept the futility of its presence in Afghanistan (which led to a hasty and cowardly exit), and could form an integrated government, control the entire geography of Afghanistan, have a radical and ideological military force, have the power to threaten the neighbors and have the potential to form an alliance with the anti-US groups, Taliban have turned into a powerful actor in Afghanistan. Moreover, the increasing desire of the regional countries towards interaction with the Taliban as well as the group’s ability to secure the political and security interests of the United States in the region encourages Washington to push the Taliban towards a long-term strategic interaction with the US government.
So far, the Taliban has not implemented the Doha political agreement as it should, and it seems that it will not enter into a long-term strategic interaction with the United States without gaining new concessions, because the Taliban's strategic interaction with the US will definitely make regional countries to reconsider their interactions with the Taliban.

The most likely scenario is that if the Taliban do not fully implement the Doha agreement, postpone the long-term strategic interaction with the United States, and continue their close relationships with the regional powers such as Iran, China and Russia, the US government will finally adopt a policy of serious confrontation with the Taliban.
Therefore, Washington will increase its ties with Afghan opposition groups, both to force the Taliban to engage in a long-term interaction with the US and to have an alternative force in the event of a confrontation with the Taliban.