By: Hasibollah Shahin

Introduction
In today's world, the expansion of relationships depends on the expansion of infrastructure mechanisms. Countries depend on each other to meet their needs, and this dependency determines their behavior towards each other. In fact, the regional cooperation processes are affected by the technical cooperation between the governments of a particular region; and this processes can be upgraded to a stable level of convergence through proper management. Central Asia is a vast territory located at the heart of the desert. The transit and trade infrastructure of this region has turned 200 years old, which was originally designed and built by the Russians. Central Asia's infrastructure is designed in such a way that all the former Soviet Union countries depend on Russia for trade with the outside world. This dependence has diminished the role of these countries in interacting with large customers, and as a result, the identity of the governments of the region has been neglected.

After 9/11 and the US presence in Afghanistan, the Central Asian states sought to decrease their dependency on Russia by the US support, and began to look for alternative ways to expand their trade. To that purpose, they turned to their southern neighbor, Afghanistan, and presented large-scale regional connection plans that, if realized, could turn Afghanistan into a regional trade hub. However, different factors such as war, corruption and arbitrary approaches of the former leaders of Afghanistan have postponed these projects.

This article will answer one question: what will be the fate of the projects that connects Central Asia to Afghanistan in the wake of the collapse of the post-Bonn regime in Afghanistan and the rise of the Taliban? The Taliban's approach over the past three months has shown that the new government's first priority is to engage with the top western powers to gain legitimacy and release its blocked funds. At this stage, it is not a priority for the Taliban government to carry out infrastructure projects. The Taliban sees the survival of their government in interaction with the western powers, especially the United States, rather than pursuing the competitive projects that threaten their survival. To prove this hypothesis, we have used the Game Theory, which is most simulated in the form of governments. The findings suggest that the fate of major infrastructure projects connecting Central Asia to South Asia and southwest Asia depends on the Taliban regime's political demands from the regional countries. This perspective presents several scenarios, which will be discussed here.

Theoretical Framework
Governments are in a highly competitive environment, and each of them seeks to use its tools - such as diplomacy, and particularly, incentive approaches - to maximize its own interests. In such a competitive environment, only those governments can achieve their goals that provide the greatest rewards to the other side. However, what is obscure is that the parties of the game are not aware of each other's intentions, which can lead to more sensitivity and will force them to consider other options.

In this game, usually two or more governments compete for maximum benefit. The first actor tries to bring a third actor to the game to secure its own interests. The third actor is usually an actor who has just joined the competition and in some cases cannot observe the situation. Meanwhile, actors A and B make some new suggestions to the newcomer, actor C.

The main point of the game is that both of the rivals do not know what kind of offer has been made to C by the other side, and that whether they have a chance to win or not. It should be noted that actor A is a dictator, so what seems most likely is that actor C will prefer actor A to other actors.
 

 
The Taliban and future of Central Asia’s infrastructure projects
Following the rise of the Taliban, all the connection projects that include Afghanistan have faced with an unknown fate. Although these projects are considered to be a guarantee for a secure and developed Afghanistan which is at the same time a regional trade hub, their fate depends on political developments. This issue highlights the primacy of politics over economics for the regional and global actors. But in the meantime, some countries such as Uzbekistan (with the Chinese card), and Turkmenistan (with the US card) have entered the arena and are trying to grab the infrastructure projects that go through Afghanistan at any cost, because these projects can decrease their dependency on Russia and lead to more economic growth, which in turn will reinforce their bargaining power against Russia and other top global powers. However, this is not easy and the future of these projects should be explored in the context of internal competitions of Afghanistan, the region and beyond.

Given the approaches that was adopted during the British-Soviet confrontation in Afghanistan in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries as well as the act of defining Afghanistan as a buffer zone, the Afghan rulers have always sought to balance the power between the East and West. Even Abdur Rahman Khan asked his son, Habibullah Khan, before his death not to allow the British to cross Afghanistan through the railway; because he knew that this would upset the balance of power in the region and overthrow the ruling family, what later happened during Mohammed Daoud Khan’s era. He made “development” the central motto of his plans and tried to open new routes towards Central Asia by using the billion-dollar loans of the Shah of Iran; but this efforts were not accepted by the Russians and led to his fall. The Pashtun elites of Afghanistan, who are also in power, have understood this issue and have always tried to follow the approach of their predecessors in preserving Afghanistan’s role as a buffer zone. Despite the US presence in Afghanistan over the past 20 years, the Afghan leaders have always pursued a "policy of procrastination" and have been reluctant to pursue the regional connection plans.

Thus, the elites of the Taliban, who see themselves as the true representatives of the Pashtun elites, are not eager to pursue the regional connection projects that go through Afghanistan, because giving any sort of welcome would be reflected as the Taliban's declared policies. Also at the regional level, the disadvantages of these projects are considered more than their useful points. Pakistan, as one of the countries involved in this project, maintains that the project will be in favor of its longtime rival, India, more than any country. Therefore, Islamabad intends to prevent this project even at the cost of depriving itself from the profits of the plan, because the energy transit projects from Turkmenistan are focused more on the Indian markets rather than those of Pakistan.

Moreover, Russia which plays both a regional and trans-regional role in Central Asia, is concerned about China's growing influence in the region and sees the regional connection projects that go through Afghanistan as a threat to its interests, because the Russians, who have been trying for centuries to be Central Asia’s only trade route with the outside world, will lose their special status, and thus Moscow's influence in Central Asia will be reduced. In fact, this was one of the reasons why Russia backed the Taliban after 2007. Through this policy, Moscow tried to counter China and the United States' plans for reducing Russia's role in Central Asia. On the other hand, India, as a regional and trans-regional rival of China, is dissatisfied with Beijing's infrastructure plans and has always tried to prevent them from being implemented. For this reason, India and Russia, with the help of the United States, proposed the New Spice Route plan as an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative in order to stop the growing influence of this dormant dragon.

On the other hand, in the trans-regional sphere, the United States, unlike in the past, is not very optimistic about these projects, especially in a situation that it has left Afghanistan. The United States does not want China to become an unstoppable power in Central and South Asia, because it might push Washington's regional allies towards Beijing. That is why an undeclared alliance between the United States, Russia and India has been formed against China. Although this alliance is not very prominent, the growing power of China in the region and the world, the issue of Afghanistan and other global issues have unified these three actors to control China.

In fact, the fate of the regional connection projects that will connect Central Asia to South Asia through Afghanistan depend on a number of factors whose realization needs creative solutions from the Afghan officials. Given the involvement of major world powers in Central Asia's connectivity and infrastructures, the weight and role of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in the global politics is small. Moreover, given the political and financial situation, the Taliban are more inclined towards the United States, Russia and India rather than China and Pakistan.

The Taliban government, which lacks the necessary national and international legitimacy, can guarantee its survival only when it can build positive relations with the United States and Russia. Thus, according to Game Theory, the Taliban as actor C, will accept the proposals of actor A instead of accepting the offers of countries such as Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan, which are called actors B. The survival of the Taliban government, as they believe, depends on the international recognition and the resumption of US-led aids from the West rather than the regional connection plans.

Conclusion
The fate of the Afghanistan-centered regional infrastructure projects depends on a number of internal, regional and trans-regional factors. Due to the sensitivity of situation and the formation of a new multipolar Cold War, the regional infrastructure projects in Afghanistan require a very careful management by the Taliban leaders. Given the current sensitivity and competition surrounding these projects, implementation of the infrastructure projects, particularly the regional connection plans, does not seem to be a priority for the Taliban now.
 
Hasibullah Shahin, is an expert in international relations