By: Abbas Fayyaz

About two weeks have passed since the declaration of Donald Trump’s new strategy in Afghanistan. In this strategy, the US administration nakedly warns Pakistan against sheltering the terrorist groups.  
During this period, different reactions have been seen from the regional countries, ranging from Pakistan’s dissatisfaction to Afghanistan’s warm reception - although, there were some considerations about it too.
The announcement of the new strategy also raised a series of questions: What would be Pakistan’s new approach towards Afghanistan? how much can we hope that Pakistan changes its behavior in Afghanistan and give up the support of the terrorist groups claimed by the Americans and Afghans?  What would be waiting for Afghanistan following the new strategy?
To answer such questions, we need a prelude:
If we do not have a comprehensive explanation of an issue and not consider all its dimensions, not only we have not solved the problem, but also the dilemma could get worse.
In the new US strategy, the security view prevails and the involvement of the military in its design is quite evident. Meanwhile, the current problem in Afghanistan is the resultant of a set of political, security, social and cultural issues on a domestic, regional and even international scale.
Without promoting the culture of tolerance, and mutual respect among the ethnic groups, without respecting different religions and unity among the Muslims, without tolerating the political rivals, and without involving all the influential forces in a way that they consider themselves as part of Afghanistan’s future, no problem will be solved in the country.
The American unilateralism can solve nothing in Afghanistan. By ignoring the regional and international considerations and also the collective interests of the regional countries, the crisis would remain unresolved.
Furthermore, no problem can be solved in Afghanistan without nation-building and formation of an inclusive government.
So in this country, with all its cultural, social, political and security problems, the focus on a limited security view and attributing all the troubles to Pakistan's support for the Taliban- which of course there is no doubt about its existence- is somehow downplaying of an issue that has plagued the Honorable Afghan nation for many years.
Meanwhile, we should notice that a comprehensive view is not enough on its own and a sincere intention is also needed. In this regard, there is a great amount of pessimism towards the US which claims to be sympathetic to the Afghan people, and towards Pakistan which is the most influential country in the Afghan crisis.
 In such a situation, the Americans have announced a strategy that is a halfway return to the past. Once upon a time, when the Taliban did not have the current power and territory, the Americans and the NATO tried to destroy them via deploying more than 130,000 troops. But today, they implicitly confess that the Taliban should somehow get involved in Afghanistan’s political process.
the Americans justification is that by increasing the military strength of the US forces and the Afghan military forces through the Resolute Support Mission (RSM), they can force the Taliban to adopt a peaceful approach. This is a good wish, but the experience does not confirm that.
The Americans also hope to push Pakistan back via their threats and therefore provide the necessary conditions for the weakening of the Taliban and their return to the political process. But, does Pakistan, as the Taliban’s main supporter, has the same view?

Pakistan has a different definition of Afghanistan’s crisis.

• Pakistanis say the United States has invaded Afghanistan and made the country a safe haven for the terrorist groups.

 

• Pakistanis claim that these terrorists have infiltrated into Pakistan over the past years and imposed a lot of costs on this country.  

 

• Pakistanis say they have suffered a lot of civilian deaths in the past 16 years in their fight against terrorism and the people of their cities have been killed as a result of the imported terrorism from Afghanistan.

 

• The Pakistan officials claim the Taliban and the Haqqani Network are freely operating in Afghanistan and that the United States and the Afghan government are unable to counter them and control the borders. They say, despite the deployment of thousands of the Pakistani troops to the border, the measures taken by the Afghan government are not enough and would not lead to security.
  or example, Sartaj Aziz, the advisor of Nawaz Sharif on foreign affairs acknowledges that Islamabad has supported the Taliban in the past and is not currently opposed to them, but he says it is up to the Afghan government to negotiate with the Taliban fighters and the leaders of the Haqqani Network. He says the Afghan Taliban are active in Afghanistan and so Pakistan cannot force them to negotiate. This has nothing to do with Islamabad and this is the United States and also Afghanistan that should solve the problem, he adds.

 

• Pakistanis believe that Washington and Kabul have paved the way for the sabotage and terrorist activities of the Indian intelligence agencies in Afghanistan, such as the activities of Mullah Fazlullah, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, and the activities of Baluch separatist groups.

 

• Pakistanis say they have destroyed the terrorist cells in all the tribal areas in the past three years through heavy casualties. They also Occasionally invite some US officials to visit these areas in order to prove their claims.
  Amjad Shoaib, the Pakistan analyst, says Pakistan has cooperated with the United States in the past by handing over the Taliban’s ambassador Abdul Salam Zaeef. but now, he added, Pakistan has cleared Waziristan and other areas from the terrorists and so, the US demand for extradition of the members of Peshawar council or Quetta Shura is an irrational request which Islamabad will not comply with.
  Shoaib also noted: “Pakistan have made its best effort to suppress the terrorists and currently it does not know if some of them is secretly activated in Peshawar or Quetta. So, we will not surrender to the pressures in this regard."
  So, it can be seen that at the level of public political positions, Pakistan has the potential to not only be indebted to Afghanistan but also to emerge as a creditor.
  However, there is a hidden layer in Pakistan's actions. In this layer, Islamabad is the main sponsor of the Taliban which supports the group along its border with Afghanistan, sends the Pakistani extremists to Afghanistan - either by persuasion or by force – in order to Fight the Kabul government in coordination with the Taliban, assists the Taliban (directly or indirectly) with its logistical and financial aid, and provides safe havens for them in the areas that are very difficult, if not impossible, to be controlled by other countries. An example is the Taliban's use of Chitral mountainous areas for trade and arms transfer, which due to its geographical features, is impossible to reach by others.
  Pakistan has enjoyed a great amount of influence over various Islamist elements, figures and parties for more than 40 years. The beginning of this influence goes back to the Islamists’ war against Dawood Khan, when a large number of them came to Pakistan. Islamabad’s dominance continued in the next years and reached the climax during the jihad against the former Soviet Union. Later, Pakistan gained political power during the Taliban era and even today this power is observable in Afghanistan’s political arena.
  Islamabad has employed all its military and political capabilities in Afghanistan to form its desirable government and had made good use of all the potential for tension among Afghans.
  Pakistan knows that the Americans need its soil and airspace to support their troops in Afghanistan, and also knows that until an alternative is found for these routes - which at least in the near future seems unlikely - Washington cannot increase its pressures beyond a certain limit.
  The US authorities themselves are well aware of this fact. Although they do not explicitly admit it, we can hear that from US former officials. For example, Michael Morel, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, said the US cannot put more pressure on Pakistan because it will hurt Washington itself. He added that Pakistan does not need the US financial assistance as in the past and now is providing its needs through China. Morrell also stressed that the US needs Pakistan's soil and airspace to win the war in Afghanistan and It is impossible for the United States to win the war on terror without Pakistan's help.
  According to Morrell, Trump's policy is vague. Trump has forgotten that it is the US which needs Pakistan and that Islamabad does not need us anymore, he added.
  In addition, Pakistan is well aware of the capacity of the regional powers and is negotiating with them to help ease the US pressures.
  Pakistan also has the potential to fan the flames of war in Afghanistan through its own militias. In such a situation, the presence of the American troops is like a double-edged sword: one edge intimidates the enemies and the other one motivates them and blows in the fire of war.
  Sixteen years of failure in Afghanistan has discredited the US and NATO. Now, Pakistan's intelligence and propaganda system can keep the anti-US forces hopeful about the protraction of war through magnifying these failures.
  In these circumstances, unfortunately, one cannot imagine a bright vision for the near future of Afghanistan in the light of the new US strategy. It seems that the only solution to the country's decades-long crisis is what has been previously said: a comprehensive view, a sincere intention, and Involvement of all internal and external parties in reaching a comprehensive solution to end this crisis. Obviously, those countries which came to the region with the promise of stability and peace should bear a greater responsibility in this regard, if they are really sincere in their claims.